Tropical Storm Otto

[Matthew]

Subtropical-storm 17
Forecast one
7pm pst/10pm est
11-26-2004


...A Extratropial Gale center has started to form tropical futures to it over the Northeastern Atlatnic....


The Extratropical gale center has started to tranform into a tropical cyclone this afternoon...The front which has started to brake off from the gale center over the past 12 hours..Winds around this system by Quickscats range from 35 to 50 knots.

Over the last few hours a deep area of convection has formed with in 50 to 100 nmi to the east of the LLC/center. This is shown wraping around the system over time. That is a reason why I'm making this system, a cyclone at this time. But I could not upgrade it to a pure tropical cyclone, because of the front still holding on like a extratropical/gale center...Or with the wind max 50 or so nmi from the core. Which is the reason, I came to the result to upgrade it to a subtropical cyclone.

The Subtropical cyclone is at this time with in a large area of cold core low pressure...Which is moving very slowly at this time...Over the past few frames the very core has begun to form some of its over convection. Besides the deep layered convection it has been forming to the southeast or east of the center. The SSTS under this system are fair at this time. Ranging from 75 to 78 degrees...With looking back over the years at systems like this we can say that this system will slowly get its act together over time. With the help of a few days before a trough would move it out to sea/over colder waters.

The computer models do every thing from make loops with it...To moving it south then north...My thinking is this system is going to stay around this area of the next few days...

Forecast is for a slow developing system...


Wind forecast
0 35 knots
12 45 knots
24 45 knots
36 50 knots
48 40 knots out to sea...

Forecaster Matthew

[Matthew]

AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN AZORES. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

[Matthew]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 270307
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EST FRI NOV 26 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

EVENING SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE WESTERN AZORES HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. IF CURRENT
TRENDS CONTINUE...A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

[Matthew]

WHXX01 KWBC 281248
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM INVEST (AL932004) ON 20041128 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
041128 1200 041129 0000 041129 1200 041130 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.2N 44.0W 30.3N 44.7W 32.7N 46.1W 35.2N 48.0W
BAMM 28.2N 44.0W 29.9N 45.4W 32.0N 47.2W 33.9N 49.4W
A98E 28.2N 44.0W 29.7N 44.3W 31.7N 45.4W 33.3N 46.5W
LBAR 28.2N 44.0W 30.1N 44.3W 32.1N 45.4W 33.9N 47.1W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 47KTS 52KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 47KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
041130 1200 041201 1200 041202 1200 041203 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 36.9N 49.3W 40.0N 45.7W 44.2N 37.7W 49.5N 27.3W
BAMM 35.1N 51.2W 35.6N 48.5W 35.3N 38.7W 38.9N 28.5W
A98E 34.8N 47.2W 38.9N 44.0W 44.9N 34.2W 49.1N 14.8W
LBAR 36.0N 48.4W 41.1N 44.4W 48.5N 29.6W 53.5N 23.3W
SHIP 55KTS 58KTS 57KTS 53KTS
DSHP 55KTS 58KTS 57KTS 53KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.2N LONCUR = 44.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 26.3N LONM12 = 44.1W DIRM12 = 20DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 26.4N LONM24 = 44.3W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 360NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 360NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 360NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[Matthew]

Tropical storm 17
Forecast three
1pm pst/3pm est
11-28-2004

Winds 50 mph
Gust 60 mph
Pressure 998 millibars
Centered 28.9/46.5 west
Movement west-northwest

...17 becomes a pure tropical cyclone this afternoon...


The center of tropical storm 17, is now under a deep area of convection. Even so the system is still some what with in a large area of upper level low pressure. The system now has a warm core, with deep covnection over a well defined LLC. There is no quastion at this moment that it is tropical cyclone. The convection over the last 6 hours has been wraping around a low level cirualtion...At this moment there is signs of banding forming over the southern/Western Quads of the tropical cyclone. T numbers are at 2.5/2.5 which means 35 to 40 knots winds...Pressure is around 998 Millibars.

The cyclone is wraping up very fast over 75 to 78 degree sea surface temperature. If this trend keeps up this will become a very strong tropical storm by tomarrow morning. While there is another front heading eastward. The system should have a day or so before shear/that system starts to pick it up. The mwhc at this rate of tropical development is forecasting this to become a 70 mph tropical storm. That should happen by tomarrow afternoon. Afterwards a front should start effecting it with wind shear.(Tuedays)

The quickscats show 40 to 50 knots winds...The Mwhc is going to make this a 50 mph tropical storm at this time.

Wind forecast for fast development...

Wind forecast
0 50 mph
12 60 mph
24 70 mph
36 65 mph
48 50 mph
60 30 mph
72 gone.

Forecaster Matthew

[Matthew]

Tropical storm 17
Forecast Four
4pm pst/7pm est
11-29-2004
Winds 45 mph
Gust 50 mph
Pressure 998 millibars
Movement West-northwest

...Tropical storm 17 gets better defined as it moves to the west-northwest...
The tropical cyclone has become even more defined since yesterday afternoon. With a large area of covnection/Cdo wraping over the LLC. There is banding forming on the south/west sides/Quads. This system is becoming better oreganized as it pulls its self together. Water temperatures are 74 to 76 degrees under this system.
Upper level wind shear has been noted coming from the west to east. Over the last 12 hours. This might slow development of the cyclone...But because it is already on 74 to 76 degree waters. Any more movement to the north should stop development. Or if the system where to move past 55 west south of 35 strong upper level wind shear would weaken it. So any ways the system gots about 12 to 24 horus to get its act together.

Forecasted track. A large deep layered high pressure, has formed to the cyclones north. This has been the main force with the movement of the system over the last few days . This is forcing it to the west-northwest at this time. The Avn/Gfs forecasts this to break down because of a short wave moving out of Canada around 24 to 30 hours(12z Tuesday/18z Tuesdays. My thinking afterwards is the system should take over to the north/northeast. But the Gfs model forecast this system to break into two pieces with one making a loop to the southeast. I don't think so at this time. The Cmc also shows about the same time frame for moving this system to the north. Nogaps slightly slowly with ridge weaking. With 36 to 42 hours time frame.
Mwhc track thinking
The Mwhc forecast track takes it to the west-northwest over the next 12 to 24 hours. With afterwards a slow turn to the north. The ridge should weaken at 36 to 42 hours. Which is inline with the Gfs/Cmc models.

Forecast winds
0 45 mph
6 50 mph
12 55 mph
24 55 mph
36 30 mph cold water
48 gone
Forecaster Matthew

[Matthew]

Tropical storm 17
Forecast Five
10am pst/1pm est
11-30-2004

Winds 60 mph
Gust 70 mph
Pressure 997 millibars
Centered 31.6/51.2
Movment Not moving
..........

...Tropical storm 17 becomes a very strong tropical storm over the central Atlatnic.

Earlier this morning a cdo developed around the well defined tropical cyclone...This system has banding over 70 percent of its quads. With convection at 50 to 60c...It has also earn a t number of 3.0/3.0=45 knots/55 mph...The system for a time this morning even started to form some what of a eye future. Over the last hour or so the system has lost some of its compact cdo to a more banding convection pattern. But the mwhc thinks that a new cdo has already started to form. The mwhc is also putting the max winds for this morning upwards of 65 to 70 mph. With the weaking of the cdo future. With over 22c waters the mwhc is lowing it to 60 mph for this Advisorie.

The system is currently drifing or not moving at all. Because of a large area of high pressure to its north. The forecast models for the last few days has been forecasting a short wave to weaken the high pressure to the north. The American/Gfs model shows this ridge weaking at this moment in by later on today should be weaken to the point that this cyclone could start moving north. But also the computer model is still showing the system splitting meaning that the trough/short wave to he north doe's not pick the cyclone up. While the system moves to the east or east-southeast. The 00z Gfdl shows this trough/short wave not picking it up. Which moves the cyclone to the east. The hurricane models so far do not show this. But my thinking is they are tracking the piece that shoots north. So the mhwc is going with the system to the north not picking it up. But the system should be over 35 north before it turns back east. Which would mean the sea surface temperatures would be to cold for tropical cyclone formation.

The mwhc is going for this system holding its own for the next 24 hours. Then a slow weaking afterwards...


Forecasted winds
0 60 mph
6 60 mph
12 60 mph
24 50 mph
36 40 mph
48 gone...

Forecaster Matthew

[Matthew]

WHXX01 KWBC 301916
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM OTTO (AL162004) ON 20041130 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
041130 1800 041201 0600 041201 1800 041202 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.7N 51.0W 31.7N 50.8W 30.7N 49.7W 29.9N 48.0W
BAMM 31.7N 51.0W 31.9N 50.8W 31.1N 50.0W 30.4N 48.8W
A98E 31.7N 51.0W 32.3N 50.6W 31.9N 50.1W 31.8N 47.9W
LBAR 31.7N 51.0W 32.6N 50.7W 32.8N 49.7W 32.9N 48.4W
SHIP 40KTS 39KTS 38KTS 34KTS
DSHP 40KTS 39KTS 38KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
041202 1800 041203 1800 041204 1800 041205 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.8N 45.8W 31.4N 40.9W 34.6N 37.4W 38.6N 30.5W
BAMM 29.9N 47.7W 29.6N 44.7W 29.8N 41.6W 28.6N 39.1W
A98E 31.7N 46.0W 33.5N 42.1W 35.9N 38.1W 38.7N 31.5W
LBAR 32.8N 47.1W 32.6N 43.7W 32.1N 38.0W 35.8N 36.0W
SHIP 30KTS 21KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 30KTS 21KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.7N LONCUR = 51.0W DIRCUR = 350DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 30.9N LONM12 = 50.5W DIRM12 = 299DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 30.2N LONM24 = 48.8W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 200NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 200NM

[Matthew]

295
WTNT31 KNHC 302026
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OTTO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2004

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS ON LAST DAY OF HURRICANE SEASON...

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS ACQUIRED THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL STORM.

AT 4 PM EST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OTTO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.0 WEST OR ABOUT 810
MILES...1300 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA.

OTTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR...AND A TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST IS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES
...370 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 4 PM EST POSITION...31.8 N... 51.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 PM EST.

FORECASTER PASCH

[Matthew]

789
WTNT21 KNHC 302027
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM OTTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162004
2100Z TUE NOV 30 2004

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 51.0W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 0SE 0SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 400SE 400SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 51.0W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 51.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 32.2N 50.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 32.0N 50.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 31.5N 49.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.0N 48.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 31.0N 46.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 31.0N 45.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 31.0N 43.0W
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 51.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

FORECASTER PASCH