Tropical storm Fay

[Matthew]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.

Quickscat shows a closed LLC.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.



000
ABNT20 KNHC 132358
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS PRESENTLY LIMITED AND DISPLACED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH OR JUST NORTH
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

[Matthew]

Fay over the centeral Atlantic

[Matthew]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 142335
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGES AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS AS WELL AS THE
TURK AND CAICOS...SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.



000
WONT41 KNHC 151500
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR
OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTERESTS IN THESE
AREAS...AS WELL AS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...THE REMAINDER
OF CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.


$$


Hello Fay

AL, 06, 2008081518, , BEST, 0, 185N, 686W, 35, 1009, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 0, 0, 75, 1013,

The question is can it survive the mountains of Hati/DR.


000
WTNT31 KNHC 152039
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM AST FRI AUG 15 2008

...TROPICAL STORM FAY FORMS...SIXTH ATLANTIC STORM OF THE SEASON...

REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE MONA PASSAGE BECAME A
TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVED INTO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR
THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH
COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM GONAIVES
NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM...EAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
ABOUT 395 MILES...635 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND PASS NEAR OR OVER EASTERN
CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...MAINLY OVER WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...18.5 N...69.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN