Tropical storm Hanna

[Matthew]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 311446
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

HANNA'S OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE REMAINS RATHER RAGGED AND DEEP
CONVECTION IS LIMITED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND NEARBY BUOY 41046. HANNA WILL ENCOUNTER A RATHER
COMPLICATED ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
MAKING THE INTENSITY FORECAST PROBLEMATIC. WHILE MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER
HANNA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...THEY HAVE NOT NECESSARILY HAD THE
BEST TRACK RECORD FORECASTING THIS FEATURE. EVEN IF THE UPPER-LOW
DOES WEAKEN AS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...GUSTAV'S OUTFLOW COULD
PRODUCE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA. INDEED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A DEFORMATION AXIS FORMING NORTH OF HANNA
AS A RESULT OF GUSTAV'S OUTFLOW INTERACTING WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. BOTTOM LINE...THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS
RATHER HOSTILE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMICAL MODELS DO
INDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST AS A SECOND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OR CYCLONIC SHEAR
AXIS FORMS TO THE WEST OF HANNA. HOWEVER...ACCURATELY PREDICTING
THE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH HANNA WILL BE LOCATED AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IS
DIFFICULT...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

HANNA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RESULTING IN A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR 280/09.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. SUCH AN EVOLUTION IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE RESULTING IN A
REDUCTION IN HANNA'S FORWARD SPEED AND POSSIBLY SOME ERRATIC
MOTION. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK WESTWARD IN ITS
WAKE. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS RESPOND BY TURNING HANNA NORTHWEST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. HOWEVER...THE UKMET MODEL
ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING SUFFICIENTLY FAR WEST...AND
TO THE NORTH OF HANNA...TO RESULT IN MORE WESTWARD TRACK. SINCE
THIS IS A NORMALLY GOOD PERFORMING MODEL...IT CANNOT COMPLETELY BE
IGNORED AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

GIVEN THE HIGH SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HANNA'S EVENTUAL TRACK AND
INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 23.3N 70.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 23.4N 71.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 23.5N 72.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 23.3N 72.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 23.0N 73.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 23.5N 74.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 26.0N 76.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 05/1200Z 29.5N 79.0W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Matthew]

WTNT33 KNHC 291455
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2008

...HANNA PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST OR ABOUT 215
MILES...345 KM...NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA IS
FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...AND NORTH OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND HANNA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...21.3 N...62.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

000
WTNT43 KNHC 292054
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

THE CENTER OF HANNA REMAINS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RATHER
SHAPELESS AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A
1412 UTC ASCAT PASS FOUND WINDS OF 40 KT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. GIVEN THE LOW BIAS TYPICAL OF ASCAT WINDS IN THIS
RANGE...IT SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT.
THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB WHICH REMAIN T3.0 OR 45 KT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED A
COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF HANNA HAS NOT BUDGED
TODAY AND IT CONTINUES TO IMPART SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN EMPHATIC
SUGGESTING THAT THE UPPER-LOW WILL MOVE WEST OR WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN...ALLOWING HANNA TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR
SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BUT SHOWS A LOWER
PEAK INTENSITY THAN WAS FORECAST IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN
ABOUT 3 DAYS...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRONG NORTHWEST TO
NORTH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THESE WINDS ARE
PARTIALLY THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV. DESPITE THE HOSTILE
UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECAST...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT PREDICT
WEAKENING. OUR INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE AND STILL ASSUMES THAT THE NORTHERLY SHEAR WILL HAVE A
NEGATIVE IMPACT ON HANNA'S INTENSITY.

HANNA CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295/9. IN
GENERAL...THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF HANNA. THE TROPICAL STORM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 2
DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE HWRF
CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER SHOWING A CYCLONIC LOOP NORTH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER
AND FARTHER WEST THEREAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 21.8N 63.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 22.8N 65.4W 50 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 24.0N 67.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 24.8N 69.8W 60 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 25.0N 71.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 24.5N 72.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 23.7N 73.7W 60 KT
120HR VT 03/1800Z 23.0N 75.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



Report to moderator 71.222.125.57 (?)

000
WTNT33 KNHC 300237
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 29 2008

...HANNA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...BUT STILL A TROPICAL STORM...

INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST OR ABOUT 260
MILES...420 KM...NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 375 MILES
...600 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA IS
FORECAST TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND HANNA COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...22.1 N...65.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN


WTNT43 KNHC 300259
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT HANNA REMAINS WITHIN A
VERY HARSH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION...EXPOSED WELL WEST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTIVE
BAND...PASSED ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH OF BUOY 41043 WHICH RECORDED A
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. CONSEQUENTLY...HANNA'S CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 1002 MB BASED ON THIS DATA. A
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS JUST CAME IN A FEW MINUTES AGO AND INDICATED THAT
THE CIRCULATION MAY BE JUST A BIT SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY POSITION AS
WELL AS ALSO REVEALING A FEW BELIEVABLE 40-45 KT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
45 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CYCLONE WILL
EITHER INCREASE IN DISTANCE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WITH TIME OR
WEAKEN AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH. THE SHIPS MODEL FOLLOWS SUIT BY
SUGGESTING THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...WHICH
IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST WITH GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
THROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WHICH COULD ALSO BE INFLUENCED BY HURRICANE GUSTAV'S
OUTFLOW PATTERN. SINCE THERE IS A CONSENSUS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AN INHIBITING SYNOPTIC UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...A WEAKENING IS
INDICATED THROUGH DAY 5.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/12...WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS INTACT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
BLEND THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND THE DAY 3 PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NUDGED TOWARD THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A BLEND OF THE GFS
AND UKMET MODELS WHICH APPEAR TO BE DEPICTING THE SHEARED VERTICAL
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM MORE ACCURATELY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 22.1N 65.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 22.9N 67.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 23.9N 69.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 31/1200Z 24.5N 70.8W 60 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 24.6N 72.1W 65 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 24.4N 73.4W 65 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 23.6N 75.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 04/0000Z 23.0N 76.3W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


000
WTNT43 KNHC 300857
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HANNA.
THE CENTER CONTINUES TO RUN AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION AND NEW
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS OVER IT. THIS MEANS THAT THE SHEAR
HAS NOT RELAXED YET. A NOAA BUOY...41043...HAS BEEN EXTREMELY USEFUL
IN TRACKING THE CYCLONE. IT HAS DEPICTED THE WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA AND HAS RECENTLY
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF NEAR 1002 MB. AS LONG AS THE
MODERATE SHEAR PREVAILS...CAUSED BY THE RESILIENT UPPER-LOW...HANNA
MOST LIKELY WILL NOT STRENGTHEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NO
CHANGE
IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. GLOBAL MODELS INSIST
ON WEAKENING THE UPPER-LOW...CREATING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR HANNA TO STRENGTHEN IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN 12 AND 48 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BY SHOWING SOME SLIGHT
WEAKENING. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY HANNA...SOME OF
THEM QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY...DESPITE THE SHEAR. I DO NOT HAVE AN
EXPLANATION FOR IT.

THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGES BUT SATELLITE
FIXES AND DATA FROM THE NOAA BUOY SUGGEST THAT HANNA HAS BEEN
MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. FOR ABOUT 12 TO 24
HOURS...A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AROUND THE UPPER-LOW IS
ANTICIPATED. THEREAFTER...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF HANNA WILL THEN PROVIDE THE
DOMINANT STEERING FLOW. THIS SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A
WESTWARD AND THEN AN EVEN SLOWER WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. I TRIED
VERY HARD NOT TO FORECAST THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TURN SINCE THIS IS NOT
A VERY COMMON TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK BUT RELIABLE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE HAS FORCED ME TO DO SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
PRACTICALLY ON TOP OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. I ALWAYS WONDERED HOW
TODAY'S SOPHISTICATED DYNAMICAL MODELS WOULD HAVE FORECAST
HURRICANE BETSY BACK IN 1965. THIS HURRICANE MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE BAHAMAS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 21.9N 66.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 22.6N 68.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 23.3N 70.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 23.5N 71.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 23.5N 72.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 23.5N 74.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 03/0600Z 23.0N 75.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 04/0600Z 22.5N 77.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


000
WTNT43 KNHC 301447
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

HANNA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES BELOW -80 DEGREES C. HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THIS
CONVECTION. THE EXACT CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS A
COUPLE OF SMALL VORTICES HAVE BEEN SEEN ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER
CIRCULATION THIS MORNING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN
T3.0 OR 45 KT AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGEST MAXIMUM WINDS
WERE NEAR THAT VALUE. THERE WERE SOME STRONGER WINDS SEEN IN THE
QUIKSCAT DATA...BUT THESE WINDS WERE WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER
AND APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN RAIN-INFLATED.

THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/7. HANNA HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE MORE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 12-24 HOURS...WHICH
HAS REQUIRED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST IN
THE SHORT-TERM. THE TRACK GUIDANCE PREDICTS A GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...
THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS...AS A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFDL AND
HWRF RESPOND BY SHOWING A VERY SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IN ABOUT 3
DAYS...WHILE THE UKMET TURNS HANNA SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS EASTERN
CUBA. VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
SEVERAL OF THE FORECAST MODELS NOW INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND DAY 5. THE NEW FORECAST WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT SMOOTHS THROUGH THESE POSSIBLE UNDULATIONS
AND SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION BETWEEN 72-120 HOURS. THE NEW
TRACK IS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE MUCH DISCUSSED UPPER-LOW JUST WEST OF THE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE
WEAKENED A LITTLE THIS MORNING. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
WESTERLY SHEAR MAY RELAX JUST A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GIVEN THE RESILIENCE OF HANNA...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
LITTLE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW KEEPS HANNA JUST
BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED ONCE AGAIN...THAT THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS BELOW ALL OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE.

BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 21.9N 66.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 22.4N 67.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 22.9N 69.6W 55 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 23.2N 71.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 23.2N 72.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 23.0N 73.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 03/1200Z 23.0N 75.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 04/1200Z 23.0N 76.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN








--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT33 KNHC 301741
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
200 PM AST SAT AUG 30 2008

...HANNA HEADS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE
INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST OR ABOUT
265 MILES...430 KM...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...
220 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...22.2 N...67.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

000
WTNT43 KNHC 302048
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HANNA HAS CHANGED QUITE A BIT DURING THE DAY
TODAY. THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BECOME INVOLVED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW THAT WAS LOCATED TO ITS WEST...AND HANNA NOW HAS SOME
RESEMBLANCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL CYCLONE. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER IS
LOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BANDING OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE STILL YIELD INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0
OR 45 KT FROM BOTH AGENCIES.

HANNA HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 7 KT TODAY. A SIMILAR MOTION IS FORECAST BY THE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...SO VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS
NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THAT TIME. THEREAFTER...THE
MODEL SPREAD HAS BECOME EXTREMELY LARGE AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE NOW
PREDICTS A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION OF HANNA DURING THE 48 TO ABOUT
96 HOUR TIME FRAME. THE GFDL AND HWRF BOTH PREDICT HANNA TO MAKE A
CYCLONIC LOOP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF
AND UKMET SHOW A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION...WITH THE LATTER MODEL
FORECASTING HANNA TO BE OVER EASTERN CUBA. BEYOND 96 HOURS...
NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE UKMET...NOW FORECAST A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO RESUME AS THE RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...
THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE NEW TRACK
SLOWS DOWN THE STORM CONSIDERABLY...AND NOW PREDICTS A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK IS A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY AT DAY 5...BUT IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK FORECAST...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST SEEMS JUST AS DIFFICULT. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND SHIPS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY
SHEAR. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AS TO HOW HANNA WILL RESPOND TO THE
SHEAR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE
SHORT-TERM...BUT LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY BETWEEN 36-96 HOURS.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COULD
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...SO SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATE AT DAY 5. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS BELOW
ALL OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE 12-FT SEA RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE BASED ON REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 41046.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 22.4N 67.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 22.8N 68.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 23.3N 70.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 23.5N 71.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 23.5N 72.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 23.5N 72.8W 55 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 24.0N 74.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 04/1800Z 25.0N 76.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTNT43 KNHC 310244
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT A
CONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE
OF THE HANNA HAS TRANSFORMED INTO A SYSTEM SIMILAR TO A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE...WITH A SLIGHT TILT TO THE WEST WITH HEIGHT. THE CYCLONE
HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE PARTLY
EXPOSED CENTER...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS.
THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME MODERATE SUBSIDENCE SPREADING OVER THE
AREA PRODUCED BY CONVERGING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW
NOW ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA AND GUSTAV'S OUTFLOW PATTERN...WITH THIS
DRYER MORE STABLE AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM'S CORE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON DVORAK AND
HEBERT/POTEAT INTENSITY TECHNIQUES...AS WELL AS A QUIKSCAT PASS
THAT SUPPORTED THIS INTENSITY.

THE INTENSITY MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY
SHEAR AROUND THE 24 HOUR PERIOD...THEN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AFTERWARD. THE SHIPS AND THE LGEM
AGREE WITH GRADUAL STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR
APPEARS...THEN THE MODELS AGREE WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE 72
HOUR PERIOD. BEYOND DAY 3...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A HINT
OF A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER WIND ENVIRONMENT...WHICH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ALSO DEPICT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THIS PHILOSOPHY AND INDICATES SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AT THE 120
HOUR PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/7. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT AN ANCHORED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A DEEP MID-LATITUDE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WEAKEN A
PORTION OF THE RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE BAHAMAS
WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING HIGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE HANNA TO
TEMPORARILY SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD WHILE
MAINTAINING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEAST OF
HANNA IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE LOW LIFTING OUT
AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST COAST. THE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS
RATHER LARGE...HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY ARE SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OVER OR EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BEYOND 72 HOURS...WHILE THE
UKMET IS STILL PREDICTING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO REMAIN INTACT
TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT INDICATES A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEYOND DAY 3.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0300Z 22.9N 67.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 23.3N 69.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 23.6N 70.4W 50 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 23.6N 71.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 23.6N 72.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 23.8N 73.1W 55 KT
96HR VT 04/0000Z 24.5N 74.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 05/0000Z 26.5N 76.5W 60 KT

$$
000
WTNT43 KNHC 310855
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

HANNA HAS BEEN GOING THROUGH SOME STRUCTURAL CHANGES THAT HAVE
RESEMBLED A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AT TIMES AS AN UPPER-LEVEL COLD LOW
AND DRY AIR HAVE BECOME ENTANGLED WITH THE INNER-CORE CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS INDICATED
THAT THE UPPER-LOW HAS BEGUN TO DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD HISPANIOLA
...WHICH MAY ALLOW HANNA TO TRANSITION BACK INTO A FULL WARM CORE
TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 50 KT
AND THE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE BASED ON A 30/2231Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THAT WAS NOT
AVAILABLE FOR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE ST3.0/45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE AT 290/10. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
NOW INDICATES SOME SOUTHWARD COMPONENT TO HANNA'S TRACK BY 48 HOURS
AS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IMPINGES ON THE CYCLONE BEHIND A DIGGING
TROUGH OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE
GUSTAV LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST OF HANNA. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES
AT LEAST 30 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR ACROSS HANNA AT 48 HOURS...WHICH
SHOULD ACT TO DISPLACE ANY DEEP CONVECTION INTO THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND ALSO HELP TO FORCE THE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD. SHOULD
HANNA BE STRIPPED OF ALL CONVECTION AROUND THAT TIME PERIOD...THE
SHALLOW BAM MODEL ALSO INDICATES A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION
...INCLUDING A CYCLONIC LOOP. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS... NEARLY ALL OF
THE MODELS FORECAST THE STRONG UPPER-TROUGH TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND BE REPLACED BY A LARGE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
HANNA. THE LATTER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INDUCE A
NORTHWESTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE KEY TO THE
FORECAST TRACK AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES WILL BE JUST HOW FAR SOUTH
AND WEST HANNA MOVES BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. MOST
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS HANNA OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH
BRING HANNA NEAR THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA BY DAY 4 AND INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY DAY 5. AT THIS TIME...THE SPECIFICS OF THOSE
TWO TRACKS ARE CONSIDERED TO BE OUTLIERS...BUT THEY HAVE NOT BEEN
ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TRICKY. WITH MORE THAN 30 KT OF
SHEAR FORECAST TO AFFECT HANNA BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE COULD
EASILY BE SHEARED APART. HOWEVER...WHILE THE SHEAR WILL BE
STRONG...ITS NEGATIVE EFFECTS MAY BE OFFSET BY THE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL DIFLUENT PATTERN THAT IS ALSO FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS
HANNA AT THAT TIME. BY 72-96 HOURS...ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE ON
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW REPLACING THE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR
PATTERN...INCLUDING OUTFLOW JETS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH...WHICH WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER 29-30C
SSTS BENEATH THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
HELD BELOW ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF WHAT THE EXACT STRUCTURE OF HANNA WILL BE AFTER THE
UPCOMING STRONG SHEAR PATTERN ABATES IN AROUND 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0900Z 23.2N 69.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 23.6N 70.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 23.7N 71.4W 50 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 23.7N 72.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 23.3N 73.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 23.6N 73.9W 55 KT
96HR VT 04/0600Z 25.1N 75.4W 60 KT
120HR VT 05/0600Z 28.0N 78.0W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Matthew]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 311756
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
200 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2008

...HANNA WEAKENS A BIT MORE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE
INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM
CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.1 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...230 KM...NORTH OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
HANNA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED THEN TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...HANNA WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.

LONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...23.5 N...71.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Matthew]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 312038
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING HANNA DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS FOUND A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 48 KT WHICH
REDUCES TO APPROXIMATELY 40 KT AT THE SURFACE. WHILE THERE WERE A
FEW HIGHER VALUES FROM THE SFMR...THESE WERE LIKELY RAIN INFLATED.
THE OVERALL INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.
HANNA IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS DO
FORECAST THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV'S
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW SHOULD KEEP NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA THROUGH
DAY 3. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST A SOMEWHAT
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT AS A SECOND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OR CYCLONIC SHEAR
AXIS FORMS TO THE WEST OF HANNA. THIS WOULD PUT HANNA IN A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...ACCURATELY
PREDICTING HANNA'S PROXIMITY TO LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES AT
DAYS 4 AND 5 IS DIFFICULT...TO SAY THE LEAST. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING...BUT
IS BELOW THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

HANNA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR 280/09. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SUCH AN EVOLUTION IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE
THE STEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN
HANNA'S FORWARD SPEED. IN FACT...SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW HANNA
MEANDERING OVER OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BY DAY
3...THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD IN ITS WAKE.
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AT THE
EXTENDED RANGE. THE GFS...GFDL...AND THE HWRF MODELS LIE ALONG THE
RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND SHOW HANNA LIFTING QUICKLY
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
CONVERSELY...THE UKMET MODEL SHOWS THE RIDGE NOSING WESTWARD TO THE
NORTH OF HANNA...PRODUCING A TRACK ALONG THE LEFT...OR
SOUTHWEST...SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. SINCE THERE IS NO CLEAR
REASON TO FAVOR ONE SCENARIO OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME...I'VE
ELECTED TO LEAVE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED BEYOND
72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 23.5N 71.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 23.5N 72.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 23.3N 73.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 23.3N 73.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 23.5N 74.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 24.5N 75.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 31.5N 81.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Matthew]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 010258
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008

SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED HANNA THIS AFTERNOON...
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM BETWEEN 2200
AND 0000 UTC HAVE BEEN VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AGAIN TO T3.0 OR 45 KT... AND
NOAA BUOY 41046 RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK ONE-MINUTE WIND SPEED OF
39 KT VERY NEAR THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THESE DATA SUPPORT
INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 45 KT.

BOTH THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS DIAGNOSE ABOUT 20 KT OF
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA AT THIS TIME. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND
THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHEAR VALUES
DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. GIVEN THIS SHEAR...IT IS TEMPTING TO NOT
FORECAST ANY STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME...BUT MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME INTENSIFICATION. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...HOWEVER IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE HANNA IS
LOCATED. THE LGEM MODEL IS AT THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM AND
FORECASTS VERY LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH
36 HOURS...BUT IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THEREAFTER AND USES A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AT 3 DAYS AND BEYOND.

HANNA HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 280/7 KT. THE BUILDING DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO BLOCK HANNA'S
FORWARD MOTION VERY SOON...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY SLOW
AND ERRATIC MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48
HOURS...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE U.S. WHILE ANOTHER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST OF HANNA. THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE STORM NORTHWESTWARD BY THAT
TIME. THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT
THE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE LARGE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE
UKMET REMAINS THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER WITH A TRACK NEAR CUBA AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WHILE THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL ARE ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A TRACK TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH HAS SHIFTED EVER SO
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 23.7N 72.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 23.5N 72.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 23.4N 73.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 23.4N 73.7W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 23.7N 74.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 25.4N 75.8W 55 KT
96HR VT 05/0000Z 29.0N 79.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 06/0000Z 33.5N 82.0W 45 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Matthew]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 010255
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 31 2008

...HANNA SLIGHTLY STRONGER...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A MOTION
BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF HANNA WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A NOAA BUOY INDICATES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...23.7 N...72.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Matthew]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 010546
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
200 AM AST MON SEP 01 2008

...HANNA DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES NORTHEAST OF MANAGUA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM...NORTH OF THE CAICOS ISLANDS.

HANNA HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD NEAR 2 MPH...AND A CONTINUED
SLOW FORWARD MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
HANNA WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A NOAA BUOY EAST OF THE CENTER INDICATES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...23.7 N...72.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Matthew]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 010848
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...A LARGE MASS OF INTENSE CONVECTION WITH
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -87C HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF HANNA. NOAA BUOY 41046 JUST EAST OF THE
ALLEGED CENTER HAS REPORTED 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 KT...
WHICH EASILY SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT...AND HANNA
COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE STRONGER BASED ON AN EARLIER PRESSURE OF
997.1 MB FROM THE SAME BUOY. A RECON AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE
HANNA LATER TODAY AND PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 260/02...DUE MAINLY TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER. A 01/0224Z ASCAT
OVERPASS SUGGESTED THE CENTER OF HANNA WAS FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND
EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION. IF THAT IS THE CASE...HANNA WOULD
EASILY BE A 55-KT OR STRONGER TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...EARLIER
PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE MOST RECENT NIGHTTIME VISIBLE
IMAGERY...AND THE CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR PATTERN ALL SUGGEST
THAT THE CENTER SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION RATHER THAN EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. IN CONTRAST TO THE
UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOCATION OF HANNA...ALL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NEARLY IDENTICAL FORECAST SCENARIOS OF THE MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS. THE BERMUDA HIGH IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
BY DAYS 3-5...WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF THE
U.S. EAST COAST AND SPLITS...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION DIGGING
SOUTH OF HANNA AND THE NORTHERN PORTION LIFTING OUT AND ALLOWING
RIDGING TO FILL IN BEHIND THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF HANNA. THIS
COMBINED FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE HANNA TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY 72-96 HOURS/DAYS 3-4. THE PRIMARY
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS HOW THEY HANDLE THE SIZE OF HANNA
BETWEEN NOW AND 72 HOURS. THE ECMWF AND UKMET KEEP HANNA ABOUT 100
NMI IN DIAMETER SMALLER AT 500 MB THAN THE OTHER MODELS DO...WHICH
RESULTS IN MORE RIDGING TO EXIST ON THE EAST SIDE OF HANNA...AND
WHICH FORCES THE CYCLONE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANS A LITTLE TOWARD
THE ECMWF-UKMET SCENARIOS BASED ON HANNA'S CURRENT SIZE.

LITTLE...IF ANY...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
DUE TO HOSTILE NORTHERLY SHEAR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE ALMOST IDENTICAL 200 MB FLOW PATTERNS
INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
REGIMES SURROUNDING HANNA. THIS TYPE OF DUAL JET PATTERN WOULD
FAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...AND HANNA COULD EASILY BE A
HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT
REMAINS BELOW ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

ALL INTERESTS IN FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECASTS FOR
HANNA SINCE ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OF HANNA MUCH CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 23.6N 72.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 23.4N 73.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 23.4N 73.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 23.7N 74.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 24.2N 74.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 26.2N 76.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 30.0N 80.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 06/0600Z 35.0N 82.5W 30 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Matthew]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 011452
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

HANNA'S OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN IMPROVING THIS
MORNING WITH AN IMPRESSIVE CDO FEATURE NOW COVERING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED
AND SUGGEST MAX WINDS NEAR 55 KT. I'M GOING TO CONSERVATIVELY SET
THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT SINCE AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS ON ITS WAY. HAVING SAID THAT...A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD BE LOCATED A LITTLE
FARTHER INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS SUGGEST THAT HANNA COULD BE
STRONGER THAN ESTIMATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH HAD
PREVIOUSLY INHIBITED DEVELOPMENT HAS DISSIPATED...AND HANNA NOW
FINDS ITSELF IN A VERY SMALL AREA OF LOW SHEAR. HOWEVER...WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
GUSTAV'S UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW JUST NORTH OF HANNA...AND GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR PERSISTING DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHOWS HANNA BECOMING A
HURRICANE A LITTLE SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BY 72
HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN...AND HANNA
COULD FIND ITSELF IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING. STILL...PREDICTING THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY...AT DAYS 3-5 IS VERY DIFFICULT.

WHILE THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...HANNA APPEARS TO BE MOVING
MORE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250/4. A VERY SLOW WEST-
SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CAUSING HANNA TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH 36 HOURS
BASED ON THE LATEST MOTION. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY AT THE EXTENDED RANGES AND NEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 23.0N 72.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 22.8N 73.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 22.7N 73.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 22.9N 74.1W 60 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 23.7N 74.9W 65 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 26.5N 77.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 30.5N 80.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 36.5N 82.0W 35 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

[kenl01]

Looks like "Han Dog" is trying to hit me guys !!