Tropical storm Zeta

[Matthew]

Information on the second cross over cyclone in history will be updated as time go's by.

[Matthew]

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ZETA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM AST FRI DEC 30 2005

...LATE SEASON TROPICAL STORM...THE 27TH OF THE YEAR...FORMS IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 1 PM AST...1700Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 36.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1070
MILES...1720 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

ZETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. A TURN
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY...A
WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1 PM AST POSITION...25.0 N... 36.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
NOON EST FRI DEC 30 2005

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH HAD ITS ORIGINS IN AN OLD
FRONTAL TROUGH...BEGAN DEVELOPING ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
WITH WELL-FORMED CONVECTIVE BANDS NEAR THE CENTER...WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT...AND TROPICAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...
ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON THE 27TH TROPICAL STORM OF 2005. THE
INTIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE RULE-
CONSTRAINED T2.5 CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE T3.5 DATA T NUMBERS.
WITHIN 24 HOURS...WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHARPLY
OVER THE CYCLONE...SO ZETA PROBABLY HAS A SHORT LIFE AHEAD OF IT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7...AS ZETA IS MOVING AROUND A MID-LEVEL
LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS THE
WESTERLIES BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE WITHIN 12-24 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...IF THE SYSTEM WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE SHEAR...IT
SHOULD TURN WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS...AND IS
SOMEWHAT SLOWER TO THE WEST THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1700Z 25.0N 36.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 25.5N 37.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 31/1200Z 26.0N 38.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 26.0N 40.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 01/1200Z 26.0N 42.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI DEC 30 2005

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 18Z WERE T3.0...OR 45 KT...FROM TAFB AND
SAB...WHILE AFWA GAVE ZETA A SUBTROPICAL T2.5 CLASSIFICATION.
BASED ON THESE CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
45 KT. THE WELL-DEFINED BANDING STRUCTURES SEEN THIS MORNING HAVE
ALREADY BECOME RAGGED...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
WESTERLIES BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. WHILE THERE COULD BE BRIEF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
DURING TONIGHT'S CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM...STRONG WESTERLIES ARE NOT FAR
FROM THE CYCLONE AND SHOULD OVERTAKE ZETA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/6. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST REASONING. ZETA IS STILL MOVING AROUND A MID-LEVEL LOW TO
ITS SOUTHWEST...BUT THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE
WESTERLIES MOVE IN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. ASSUMING ZETA
WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN SHEAR...IT SHOULD THEN TURN
WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND
OF THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS...AND THE 12Z GFDL.

THE HISTORICAL RECORD SHOWS THAT ALICE OFFICIALLY BECAME A TROPICAL
STORM AT 1200 UTC 30 DECEMBER 1954. MY WORKING BEST TRACK FOR ZETA
CURRENTLY SHOWS STORM STATUS BEGINNING AT 1200 UTC THIS MORNING...
WHICH TENTATIVELY ALLOWS ZETA TO TIE ALICE FOR THE LATEST FORMING
TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. HOWEVER...A CASE CAN BE MADE
FOR CONSIDERING ZETA A TROPICAL STORM AS EARLY AS 0600 UTC THIS
MORNING. WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE FINAL ANALYSIS OF ZETA'S TRACK
TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE ITS FORMATION FALLS RELATIVE TO ALICE'S.

ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE SEEMS TO WANT TO DEVELOP TROPICAL STORMS AD
NAUSEAM...THE CALENDAR WILL SHORTLY PUT AN END TO THE USE OF THE
GREEK ALPHABET TO NAME THEM.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 25.3N 37.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 25.6N 38.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 25.8N 39.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 26.0N 40.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 01/1800Z 26.0N 42.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST FRI DEC 30 2005

ZETA IS ROUGHLY HALF OF A TROPICAL STORM... WITH MOST OF THE
CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER... BUT STILL SOME OF IT NEAR THE
FAIRLY TIGHT CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED
FROM SIX HOURS AGO AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35 TO 45 KT.
HI-RES WIND ESTIMATES FROM A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT 2015Z WERE
AS STRONG AS ABOUT 45 KT NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER... SO THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KT. THE QUIKSCAT DATA
INDICATED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS FARTHER FROM THE CENTER IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WHILE THE FEW 50-60 KT
VECTORS WERE NOT LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE... 30-40 KT VECTORS WERE
WIDESPREAD IN THE OUTER BANDING EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION. THE WIND RADII IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANTS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY.

ZETA IS STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT... BUT A LITTLE
MORE TO THE RIGHT AT ABOUT 320 DEGREES... PRESUMABLY DUE TO THE
ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN DRAGGING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER A
LITTLE NORTHWARD. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY DO NOT HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CIRCULATION OR ITS RECENT
MOTION... SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES HEAVILY ON THE
ANTICIPATED STEERING FLOW. THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES FULLY OVERTAKE
AND SIGNIFICANTLY SHEAR THE TROPICAL STORM. ZETA MIGHT HOLD ON TO
TROPICAL STORM STATUS FOR ALMOST ANOTHER 24 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. AS ZETA WEAKENS IT SHOULD BE STEERED
INCREASINGLY BY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW
EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE... SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
GRADUALLY BENDS TO THE WEST AS ZETA LIKELY DEGENERATES INTO A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0300Z 25.9N 37.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 26.1N 38.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 26.2N 39.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 26.2N 40.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 02/0000Z 26.3N 41.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

[Matthew]

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SAT DEC 31 2005

A BURST OF RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION...WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -70C...
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN FACT... IT APPEARS THAT
A SMALL CDO FEATURE MAY BE FORMING OVER THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER
DEPICTED IN RECENT TRMM AND AMSU MICROWAVE DATA. THE 50-KT INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB. DATA T-NUMBERS USING A CDO
FEATURE SUGGEST THE INTENSITY COULD EVEN BE 55-60 KT... BUT I WOULD
PREFER TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE CDO-LIKE FEATURE PERSISTS FOR AT
LEAST ANOTHER 6 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING THE INTENSITY ANY FURTHER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/04 KT. MICROWAVE IMAGERY DURING
THE PAST 9 HOURS INDICATES ZETA HAS SLOWED ITS NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AS ZETA COMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH... AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS. THE PRIMARY DILEMMA WITH THE TRACK
FORECAST IS WHEN WILL ZETA WEAKEN AND BECOME VERTICALLY SHALLOW...
AND THEN BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE
BERMUDA RIDGE. SINCE ZETA IS CURRENTLY STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS
THREE RUNS OF THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BEEN FORECASTING... AN ADDITIONAL
12-24 HOURS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. SINCE THE 00Z GFS MODEL REAMINS POORLY INITIALIZED... THE
OFFICIAL TRACK LEANS CLOSER TO THE GFDL-NOGAPS-UKMET CONSENSUS.

LIKE THE FORECAST TRACK... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL CURRENTLY SHOWS 45 KT OF
VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM... WHICH IS LIKELY MUCH TOO STRONG
GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. SINCE ZETA IS A RELATIVELY SHALLOW TROPICAL
CYCLONE LIKE ITS PREDECESSORS DELTA AND EPSILON... THE SHIPS SHEAR
CALCULATIONS ARE ALSO PROBABLY TOO HIGH WITH ZETA. SINCE THE 300 MB
FLOW IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE WESTERLY AT ONLY
15-20 KT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS... THEN LESS SHEAR SHOULD
RESULT IN LESS WEAKENING THAN FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. IT IS
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT ZETA COULD EVEN SURVIVE BEYOND 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0900Z 26.0N 37.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 26.3N 38.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 26.5N 39.4W 45 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 26.6N 40.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 26.6N 41.7W 30 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 27.0N 42.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SAT DEC 31 2005

ZETA CONTINUES TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT WESTERLY SHEAR IS
RESTRICTING THIS CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. VISIBLE AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT THE CENTER COULD BECOME
EXPOSED AT ANY TIME. OVERALL THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS WELL
ORGANIZED AS IT DID AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WHEN AN EYE-LIKE
FEATURE WAS BRIEFLY PRESENT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE 55 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO
ESTIMATES. THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED THE CENTER BUT WAS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO INDICATE THAT THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE CONTRACTED.
A SEQUENCE OF OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP WCBP...WHICH PASSED WITHIN 40
NMI OF THE CENTER BUT NEVER REPORTED WINDS HIGHER THAN 34 KT...
ALSO SUGGEST THAT ZETA PRESENTLY HAS A FAIRLY SMALL WIND FIELD.
ZETA HAS FOUND A RELATIVELY SOFT SPOT BETWEEN STRONG SHEAR TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT STRONGER WESTERLIES LIE AHEAD
AND THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO POUND AWAY AT ZETA. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS THEREFORE ANTICIPATED BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE
THAN INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/4...WHICH IS TO THE LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IN FACT THE CENTER COULD BE A LITTLE
SOUTH OF MY ADVISORY POSITION. WEAK RIDGING IS PRESENT IN THE
LOWER- TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE TO THE NORTH OF ZETA...AND THIS
STEERING SHOULD PREDOMINATE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS ZETA BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SHEARED. AFTER THAT...A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY ABOUT
700 NMI TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF ZETA COULD TURN THE SYSTEM
NORTHWARD...PARTICULARLY IF ZETA HOLDS TOGETHER LONGER THAN
EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...BUT AFTER THAT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW ZETA WILL
RESPOND TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH. THE GFDL...WHICH
STRENGTHENS ZETA TO A HURRICANE IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT WESTERLY
SHEAR...TURNS THE SYSTEM SHARPLY NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS AND NOGAPS KEEP A VERY WEAK SYSTEM ON A
WESTERLY OR WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS
THE LATTER SCENARIO...WITH JUST A SLIGHT BEND TO THE RIGHT AS THE
REMNANTS OF ZETA BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 3 DAYS
OR SO.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 25.9N 38.2W 50 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 26.0N 38.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 26.0N 40.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 26.0N 41.1W 30 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 26.3N 42.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 03/1200Z 27.0N 42.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2005

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ZETA HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DETERIORATING
DURING THE DAY...WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF WEAKENING CONVECTION. T NUMBERS WERE DOWN FROM ALL
AGENCIES AT 18Z...AT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS NUDGED
DOWNWARD TO 45 KT ON THIS BASIS. WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL
ZETA DISSIPATES OR IS ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING
THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST.

ZETA REMAINS LOCATED SOUTH OF WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE. COUNTERING THIS SLOW WESTWARD STEERING IS THE
CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY...WITH THE RESULT THAT ZETA HAS MOVED LITTLE
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS...A SLOW
WESTWARD MOTION OF THE CENTER SHOULD RESUME IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
UNTIL THE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THAT
POINT THE REMNANTS OF EPSILON WILL LIKELY BE DEFLECTED NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 25.7N 38.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 25.7N 38.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 25.7N 39.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 25.7N 40.7W 30 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 26.0N 41.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2005

ZETA APPEARED ON THE VERGE OF LOSING ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION A
FEW HOURS AGO... BUT SINCE ABOUT 21Z THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON
SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE AGAIN. HOWEVER... THAT CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WIND
SHEAR. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 2.5 AND THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 45 TO 55 KT. THE AMSU AND QUIKSCAT
OVERPASSES THIS AFTERNOON BOTH MISSED MOST OF THE CIRCULATION... SO
THERE IS NOT MUCH BASIS UPON WHICH TO CHANGE THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WHICH REMAINS 45 KT. ZETA IS STILL BARELY MOVING... BUT IT APPEARS
TO BE DRIFTING WESTWARD.

THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OR REASONING. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HOLDS ON TO A TROPICAL STORM FOR ANOTHER 24
HOURS... LONGER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT WELL BELOW THE GFDL
INTENSITY FORECAST. THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS OVER ZETA ARE NOT
FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO GET MUCH STRONGER DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SO IT IS POSSIBLE ZETA WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL
STORM LONGER THAN FORECAST... BUT GIVEN HOW MUCH IT STRUGGLED
AGAINST THE SHEAR EARLIER TODAY IT COULD ALSO LOSE ITS DEEP
CONVECTION FOR GOOD AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS SLOW AND GENERALLY WESTWARD... PRESUMING THAT SOME
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO... WHICH WOULD ALLOW
THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES TO RETARD THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE EASTERLIES AROUND THE NARROW AND WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ZETA. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS
MIGHT BE PULLED NORTHWARD BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE ATLANTIC.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0300Z 25.6N 38.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 25.5N 39.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 25.4N 40.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 25.4N 40.9W 30 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 25.6N 41.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

[Matthew]

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST SUN JAN 01 2006

THE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLIER HAS BEEN ON THE
WANE SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER... SHEAR PATTERN
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT ABOUT 45 KT... AND THAT IS
THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT... ALTHOUGH THE CIRRUS
OUTFLOW OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT TO THE
SOUTHWEST... WHICH HAS MADE LOCATING THE CENTER A LITTLE DIFFICULT.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/02 KT... BASED ON AN 18-HR MOTION. ZETA
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE LOCATED EAST-WEST OVER THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...HOWEVER...IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM A GENERAL
WESTERLY DIRECTION...SO THE OFFSETTING FLOW PATTERNS SHOULD RESULT
IN A SLOW FORWARD SPEED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION... WHEREAS THE GFDN
AND GFDL MODELS APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS BY TAKING ZETA NORTHWARD
ALONG 44W-46W LONGITUDE AFTER 72 HOURS AS A VERTICALLY DEEP
HURRICANE... WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

ZETA REMAINS CAUGHT IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE DIFLUENT FLOW REGION
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE SOUTH AND THE POLAR JET TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER... SHEAR ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATE 25-30 KT OF
VERTICAL SHEAR... WHICH IS ABOUT 20-25 KT LESS THAN THE SHIPS MODEL
SHEAR ASSESSMENT... IS STILL IMPINGING ON ZETA. THAT MAGNITUDE OF
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO... WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN SHEAR EXPECTED IN THE 24-48 HOUR TIME PERIOD.
HOWEVER... WITH ZETA MOVING INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD... ANY DECREASE IN THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE
OFFSET BY THE VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. THE RESULT IS THAT GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED... BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE SHIPS MODEL
WHICH IS FORECASTING ZETA TO DISSIPATE IN 36-48 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 25.7N 38.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 25.6N 39.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 25.5N 40.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 25.5N 41.2W 30 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 25.8N 42.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

[Matthew]

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN JAN 01 2006

WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT ZETA...BUT THIS SHEAR IS
CURRENTLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE STORM. IN FACT...THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED A BIT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE SYSTEM. THE LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION REMAINS QUITE
VIGOROUS...WITH THE CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE EDGE OF THE DENSE
CONVECTIVE OVERCAST. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB...BASED ON A SHEAR PATTERN... REMAIN AT 45 KT. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS SITUATED IN A REGION OF DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH
STRONGER WINDS TO ITS NORTH AND SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL
DIAGNOSES 45 KT OF SHEAR OVER ZETA...THIS IS LIKELY AN OVERESTIMATE
RESULTING FROM AVERAGING THE FLOW OVER TOO LARGE OF A HORIZONTAL
AREA SURROUNDING THE STORM. NONETHELESS THE GFS 200 MB WIND
FORECAST SHOWS THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD
OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST...WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE SHEAR ON ZETA
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS WEAKENING AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE THAN GIVEN BY SHIPS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL INTENSIFIES ZETA INTO A
HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS. SUCH A SCENARIO IS BEING REJECTED AT THIS
TIME...SINCE THAT MODEL HAS BEEN KNOWN TO HAVE A POSITIVE INTENSITY
BIAS FOR SYSTEMS IN SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT THE CENTER HAS SLIPPED A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT...240/2. AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS... THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND LOW LEVEL
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE COMPETING FOR THE STEERING OF ZETA.
AS A RESULT...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS IN ANY DIRECTION. A WEAK AND NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF ZETA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MY
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 25.2N 38.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 24.9N 39.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 24.8N 40.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 24.9N 41.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 25.0N 42.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[Matthew]

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SUN JAN 01 2006

ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...ZETA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY HAVE...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...RELAXED
SLIGHTLY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALONG
WITH AMSU ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS...
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CURRENT WIND SPEED OF 45 KT. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SOON AND
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WEAKENING. THE SHIPS MODEL...USING THE GFS
OUTPUT...SHOWS VERTICAL SHEAR OF 50 KT ON ZETA WITHIN 12 HOURS.
THIS IS LIKELY AN EXAGGERATION CAUSED BY AVERAGING OVER TOO LARGE
OF A HORIZONTAL AREA AROUND THE STORM AND...POSSIBLY...TOO DEEP OF
A VERTICAL LAYER. THE SHIPS MODEL CALCULATES THE SHEAR FROM THE
850 TO THE 200 MB LEVEL. PHASE SPACE ANALYSES FROM FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY SHOW THAT ZETA HAS A RATHER SHALLOW WARM CORE SO IT MAY
NOT HAVE AS DEEP A VERTICAL EXTENT AS MOST TROPICAL CYCLONES...AND
IT MAY NOT BE AS RESPONSIVE TO SHEAR PRODUCED BY
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC...I.E. NEAR 200 MB...WINDS AS A TYPICAL TROPICAL
STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AS
RAPIDLY AS SHIPS.

ZETA HAS BEEN MEANDERING IN A PARTIAL COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP
TODAY...PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROADER-SCALE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. ASSUMING THAT THE STORM WEAKENS AS
FORECAST...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO RESPOND MORE TO THE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WEAK AND NARROW LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE GOES
ALONG WITH THAT IDEA...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 25.0N 38.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 24.7N 39.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 24.5N 40.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 24.4N 41.4W 30 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 24.4N 42.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[Matthew]

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN JAN 01 2006

THIS IS LIKE PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE EPSILON ALL OVER AGAIN. MOST
OF THE CONVENTIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT ZETA SHOULD HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATED BY NOW...WELL IT IS NOT INDEED...AND ZETA IS PRETTY MUCH
ALIVE AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGES STILL INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION AND ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...THE
CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS ORGANIZED WITH AN ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN FACT...THE LATEST QUIKSCAT AND AMSU DATA
SUGGEST THAT ZETA COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS GIVEN IN THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. ACCORDING
TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH DISSIPATES ZETA BY 48 HOURS...THE COOLER
THAN NORMAL 200 MB TEMPERATURE IS THE ONLY PARAMETER CONTRIBUTING
TO THE MAINTENANCE OF THE CYCLONE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL
INSISTS ON MAKING ZETA A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND IT IS
HARD TO GO AGAINST IT. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT AND
DRY AIR HEADING FOR ZETA...I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST
WEAKENING AGAIN AND AGAIN.

ZETA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AT 3 KNOTS AROUND THE
WESTERN CIRCULATION OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS
AND BECOME A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...IT SHOULD BE STEERED SLOWLY
WESTWARD BY THE TRADE WINDS UNTIL DISSIPATION.

MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AS INDICATED BY QUIKSCAT. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 24.7N 38.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 24.6N 39.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 24.0N 40.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 24.0N 41.5W 25 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 24.0N 43.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST MON JAN 02 2006

ZETA IS HOLDING ITS OWN IN THE FACE OF MODERATE WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
SHEAR. A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -60C HAS
REDEVELOPED NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... AND THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST
QUIKSCAT AND AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 45
KT... WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A TAFB SHEAR INTENSITY ANALYSIS OF
T3.0/45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/06. NIGHTTIME VISIBLE AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT ZETA MAY HAVE MADE A MORE
WESTWARD TURN DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND SURGE AS NOTED IN QUIKSCAT AND
INFRARED SATELLITE DATA. THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS...
STEERING ZETA WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS
AND BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYS1S PRODUCTS INDICATE THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY
RELAX A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS... WHILE ACCOMPANIED BY A
DECREASE IN THE 200 MB TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT DEEP
CONVECTION MAY REMAIN INTACT A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL
IS INDICATING. HOWEVER... BY 24-36 HOURS... ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE STRENGTH OF
THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS... WHICH SHOULD ACT TO SHEAR
AWAY MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION... AND FINALLY BRING THE
2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON TO A MERCIFUL ENDING. EVEN THE
LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON MAKING ZETA A HURRICANE.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 24.5N 39.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 24.4N 40.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 24.3N 41.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 24.2N 42.8W 25 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 24.2N 44.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON JAN 02 2006

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ZETA'S CENTER IS BECOMING EXPOSED
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE STORM HAS WEAKENED...HOWEVER A QUIKSCAT
PASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED 35-40 KT WINDS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION. IT IS ASSUMED THAT HIGHER SPEEDS WERE OCCURRING IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS...SO THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS SHOW AN
AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THIS ADDITIONAL BLAST OF WESTERLIES SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT ZETA WILL BE
DISSIPATING WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

VISIBLE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER MOVED A LITTLE MORE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED AND CURRENT MOTION IS
AROUND 240/7. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD
AND THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED MAINLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADEWIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE LATEST...06Z...GFDL RUN IS BACK TO STRENGTHENING ZETA INTO A
HURRICANE IN 2-3 DAYS...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY TO VERIFY.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 23.6N 40.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 23.3N 41.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 23.0N 42.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 23.0N 43.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 04/1200Z 23.0N 45.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED


$$

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST MON JAN 02 2006

ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND SEEMED IMMINENT EARLIER TODAY...AS THE
LOW-CLOUD CENTER STARTED TO BECOME EXPOSED...A NEW BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION SUBSEQUENTLY REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER. ZETA HAS THUS
FAR REFUSED TO WEAKEN IN...WHAT APPEARS TO BE...A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CLEARLY WE NEED AN INCREASED UNDERSTANDING OF
INTENSITY CHANGE FOR SYSTEMS IN THE SUBTROPICS SUCH AS
ZETA...EPSILON...VINCE...ETC. NOTWITHSTANDING... GLOBAL MODEL
FORECASTS INDICATE EVEN STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE STORM
WITHIN 1-2 DAYS AND IT IS HARD TO CONCEIVE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE FOR VERY LONG IN SUCH A HOSTILE DYNAMICAL
ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE I HAVE NOT BACKED OFF ON THE FORECAST OF
WEAKENING. OF COURSE...ZETA MAY HAVE OTHER IDEAS.

VISIBLE FIXES INDICATE A MOTION NEAR 250/6. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS
IT SHOULD BE STEERED INCREASINGLY BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW...AND
MOVE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
GFS...U.K. MET...NOGAPS...AND SHALLOW BAM SOLUTIONS. THIS IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 23.5N 41.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 23.1N 42.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 23.0N 43.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 23.0N 44.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 04/1800Z 23.0N 45.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST MON JAN 02 2006

ZETA IS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. IT APPEARS THAT EVERY PULSE OF
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT HAS TRIED TO APPROACH ZETA BECOMES
DIVERTED AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE HAS NOT
BECOME SHEARED. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED WESTWARD. BOTH SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE
LATEST SSMI IMAGE SHOW A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION RESEMBLING AN
EYEWALL...BUT NOT QUITE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING INCREASED TO 50
KNOTS AND I COULD GO EVEN HIGHER IF THE LATEST QUIKSCAT IS USED.

A BRAVO FOR THE GFDL. IT HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL WHICH HAS KEPT ZETA
ALIVE DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN MAKES
IT A 79-KNOT HURRICANE AS A SHARP UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES THE
HURRICANE. I WAS TEMPTED TO FOLLOW THE GFDL TREND BUT I HESITATED
SINCE I AM NOT READY FOR SUCH AGGRESSIVE FORECAST YET GIVEN THE
APPROACHING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FORECAST BY EVERY OTHER MODEL. ALL
I AM DOING IN THE OFFICIAL FOREAST IS PROLONGING THE LIFE OF A
GRADUALLY WEAKENING ZETA...BASED ON CONTINUITY.

ZETA HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE OR DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. A RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH
ZETA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE SLOWLY
WESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 3 OR 4 DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 23.5N 41.2W 50 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 23.4N 41.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 23.3N 42.7W 30 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 23.2N 43.8W 25 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 23.5N 45.0W 25 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 25.0N 46.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED


$$

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST TUE JAN 03 2006

AT THE CIRRUS LEVEL...ZETA IS NOW EXHIBITING OUTFLOW IN EVERY
QUADRANT WHILE IT MAINTAINS CONVECTION WITH TOPS NEAR -70C.
HOWEVER...THE CENTER IS STILL NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION AS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDERCUTS THE DEVELOPING
OUTFLOW. DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T3.5...OR 55
KT...AND AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM
2039Z LAST EVENING SUPPORTED WINDS THIS STRONG AS WELL.
CONSEQUENTLY THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING ZETA
FROM THE WEST...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT IN
FORECASTING THIS TROUGH TO SPLIT AND DROP SOUTH OF ZETA. IF THIS
OCCURS...THE WESTERLY SHEAR OVER ZETA COULD LESSEN SUBSTANTIALLY
OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND THE GFDL'S FORECAST OF A HURRICANE
DOESN'T LOOK SO UNREASONABLE ANY MORE. NO KNOWN HURRICANE HAS EVER
FORMED DURING THE MONTH OF JANUARY. I WON'T GO THAT FAR WITH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH I EXPECT THE SHEAR
TO INCREASE AGAIN...AND EVEN THE GFDL WEAKENS ZETA SUBSTANTIALLY BY
DAY 4.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 245/2. ZETA REMAINS SOUTH OF A WEAK MID- TO
LOWER-LEVEL RIDGE...AND THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ZETA MAY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LARGE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...BUT ONCE AGAIN THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SPLIT AND HENCE MAY LEAVE ZETA...OR ITS
REMNANTS...BEHIND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFDL.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 23.3N 41.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 23.3N 41.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 23.3N 42.9W 55 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 23.5N 43.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 24.3N 44.8W 40 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 27.0N 45.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 07/0600Z 27.5N 45.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[Matthew]

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST TUE JAN 03 2006

ZETA'S CENTER APPEARS TO BE PARTIALLY EMBEDDED IN THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.5...
CORRESPONDING TO A 55-KT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. AN SSMIS
IMAGE AT 1116Z DEPICTED AN EYE-LIKE RING...ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE
APPEARED TO BE AT MID-LEVELS AND DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...AND SO FAR THE STRONG WINDS
IN THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT HAVE NOT HAD MUCH OF A
DISRUPTIVE INFLUENCE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THAT IS CURRENTLY
NEARING ZETA...IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO SPLIT AND THIS
COULD BRIEFLY CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING
TODAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW NO WEAKENING UNTIL A LITTLE
LATER IN THE PERIOD...WHEN STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TAKING THEIR TOLL ON
ZETA.

EVEN WITH VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER LOCATION IS NOT THAT OBVIOUS
AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 250/4. A
MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK...TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...IS
LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER A LARGE LOW MOVING FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO TURN ZETA TO THE RIGHT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL TRACK.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 23.0N 42.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 23.0N 42.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 23.0N 43.8W 55 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 23.4N 44.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 24.5N 45.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 27.5N 46.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 07/1200Z 30.0N 46.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED


$$
NNNN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE JAN 03 2006

BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND THE
GENERAL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM ON SATELLITE IMAGES...ZETA HAS NOT
STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN FACT THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE
RAGGED-LOOKING. DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSITY
OF 45 KT. THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PRACTICALLY SUPERIMPOSED
ON THE STORM AT THIS TIME. THIS TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD...AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE IS LIKELY TO
BEGIN TO DISRUPT THE SYSTEM IN 12-24 HOURS. SO...ALTHOUGH YOU'VE
HEARD THIS FROM US BEFORE...WE EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE
TOMORROW.

INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD...270/4. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ZETA
SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEN...A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE RIGHT IS ANTICIPATED IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IF ZETA WEAKENS FASTER THAN INDICATED
HERE...IT WOULD PROBABLY FOLLOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN 3-4 DAYS.


FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 23.2N 42.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 23.2N 43.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 23.4N 44.4W 50 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 24.2N 45.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 25.3N 46.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 28.0N 47.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 07/1800Z 29.5N 48.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED


$$
NNNN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE JAN 03 2006

ZETA IS A TENACIOUS CYCLONE AND BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS THE
WINDS ARE AT LEAST 55 KNOTS. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS IMPRESSIVE AND
CONSISTS OF AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A
CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OUTFLOW
REMAINS ESTABLISHED AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF STRONG SHEAR. THE
GFDL INSISTS ON MAKING ZETA A HURRICANE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHARP
TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS COULD BE A CASE OF TROUGH INTERACTION
AIDING INTENSIFICATION. I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE GFDL
SOLUTION TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT. IT HAS ALREADY BEAT ME A FEW
TIMES. HOWEVER...FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY ONLY...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST KEEPS ZETA WITH 55 OR 50 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
WITH A WEAKENING THEREAFTER.

ZETA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST OF 250 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS STEERED BY A
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A DAY
OR SO AND THEN A NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD BEGIN AS A STRONGER RIDGE
DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF ZETA. AS THE TROUGH GOES BY...ZETA COULD TURN
BACK TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BUT BY THEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
HAVE BECOME A REMNANT LOW.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 22.7N 42.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 22.7N 43.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 22.7N 44.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 24.0N 46.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 25.5N 46.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 28.5N 48.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 30.5N 51.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED


$$
NNNN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED JAN 04 2006

ZETA CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE TOPS OF -55C TO -60C NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER....WITH RAGGED OUTER BANDING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. SOME ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW WAS APPARENT IN CIRRUS CLOUD
MOTIONS EARLIER. HOWEVER...THIS HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW
HR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 65 KT AT
TAFB TO 45 KT AT AFWA AND ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM 6 HR AGO.
THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.

ZETA HAS MOVED MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND FASTER OVER THE PAST 6-12
HR...LIKELY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 21N38W. HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW IMAGES
SUGGEST A MORE WESTWARD MOTION...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS THUS A
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 220/6. ZETA IS SOUTH OF A MEAN DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHILE A MEAN DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT ARE
CURRENTLY BETWEEN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA...WHILE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SECOND STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AFTER 48 HR. THE NEW TROUGH WILL CAUSE
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NORTH OF ZETA...
WITH THE RIDGE RE-BUILDING IN BETWEEN THE TROUGHS. THIS EVOLUTION
SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48-72
HR...THEN TURN MORE WESTWARD THEREAFTER AS THE RIDGE RE-BUILDS.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE UKMET WHICH CALLS FOR RECURVATURE ALONG 48W IN 48-72 HR.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE SCENARIO SUGGESTED BY THE
OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND IS SIMILAR TO BUT WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.

ZETA IS WELL EMBEDDED IN UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JET STREAMS...WHICH OVERALL IS NOT A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE FEATURES WILL PASS OVER ZETA DURING THE NEXT
48 HR...MOST NOTABLY THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH WHICH SHOULD REACH THE STORM IN ABOUT 36 HR. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE SOME SURGES AND LULLS IN VERTICAL SHEAR...
AND BASED ON THIS THE INTENSITY FORCAST CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING
FOR 48 HR. AFTER THAT...A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF ZETA
SHOULD CAUSE 40-50 KT UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
STORM...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. THEREFORE...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ZETA WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION BY 72 HR
AND DISSIPATING BY 120 HR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL STILL
WANTS TO MAKE ZETA A HURRICANE...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRIEFLY PROVIDE A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 36 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0900Z 22.1N 43.1W 55 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 21.9N 43.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 22.4N 45.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 23.9N 46.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 25.5N 46.9W 45 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 28.0N 49.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 30.0N 53.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED


$$
NNNN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST WED JAN 04 2006

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION INDICATES THAT ZETA IS NOT AS STRONG AS
IT WAS YESTERDAY BUT STILL HAS A SMALL BUT VIGOROUS CIRCULATION.
THERE IS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THERE ARE
NO SIGNS OF STRONG SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. BASED
ON THE LATEST T-NUMBERS AND QUIKSCAT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KNOTS. PULSES OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ZETA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE UNFAVORABLE
WINDS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6. ZETA IS BEING
STEERED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH. AS AN APPROACHING
STRONG WINTER LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WINTER
LOW WILL PASS BY VERY FAST AND WILL NOT INDUCE RECURVATURE. ZETA AS
A WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD THEN MOVE BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST UNTIL DISSIPATION. AS YOU CAN SEE...I RAN OUT
THINGS TO SAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 21.9N 44.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 22.0N 44.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 23.0N 46.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 24.5N 47.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 26.0N 48.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 28.0N 51.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 30.0N 54.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED


$$
NNNN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST WED JAN 04 2006

ZETA CONSISTS OF A VERY VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THE
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY VANISHING. THERE ARE A FEW
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION SUGGESTS
THAT ZETA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IT SEEMS THAT FINALLY SHEAR AND
DRY AIR ARE DISRUPTING THE CYCLONE...AND A FASTER WEAKENING TREND
SHOULD BEGIN SOON. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD LINGER AS A REMNANT
LOW FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

NOW THAT ZETA IS BECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT WILL PROBABLY BE
STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ZETA SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
AND CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 21.7N 45.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 21.7N 46.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 23.5N 47.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 25.0N 48.5W 25 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 26.0N 50.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 07/1800Z 28.5N 53.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 08/1800Z 31.0N 55.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED


$$
NNNN

[Matthew]

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI JAN 06 2006

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND IS NOW LIMITED TO JUST
A FEW SKINNY BANDS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER. AS SUCH... ZETA NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE... WHICH MEANS THAT BOTH IT AND THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE
SEASON HAVE ENDED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/6. ZETA HAS MADE A JOG BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST... BUT THE AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS HAS
BEEN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AT ABOUT 06 KT. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF
ZETA IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS... AND TURN NORTHWARD AFTERWARDS
AS THE REMNANT LOW COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. BY 72 HOURS... THE SKELETAL
REMAINS OF ZETA ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

I SUPPOSE IT IS ONLY FITTING THAT THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON ENDS WITH A RECORD BREAKING STORM. TODAY... ZETA
SURPASSED 1954 ALICE #2 AS THE LONGEST-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
FORM IN DECEMBER AND CROSS OVER INTO THE NEXT YEAR. ZETA WAS ALSO
THE LONGEST-LIVED JANUARY TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...ZETA
RESULTED IN THE 2005 SEASON HAVING THE LARGEST ACCUMULATED CYCLONE
ENERGY...OR ACE... SURPASSING THE 1950 SEASON. SO... UNTIL THE 2006
SEASON BEGINS... UNLESS ZETA SOMEHOW MAKES AN UNLIKELY MIRACLE
COMEBACK... THIS IS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SIGNING OFF FOR
2005... FINALLY.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 23.4N 50.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 07/0600Z 24.0N 52.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 07/1800Z 25.4N 54.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 08/0600Z 27.8N 56.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 08/1800Z 30.2N 57.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
NNNN

[Matthew]

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST THU JAN 05 2006

ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 50 KT OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER ZETA...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
WHILE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HR IT IS LOCATED
MORE THAN 80 N MI FROM THE EXPOSED CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 35 KT FROM TAFB...AND 30 KT FROM SAB
AND AFWA. BASED ON THIS...ZETA IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. ZETA IS SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH A MEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERING
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALONG 57W-58W NORTH OF 23N MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...AND A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THESE TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS WILL
CAUSE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND ALLOW ZETA TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST STRONG SHEAR TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH 40-60 KT NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS LIKELY TO
IMPACT ZETA AFTER THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE
CONTINUED WEAKENING...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ZETA TO
BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HR AND DISSIPATE BY 96
HR. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COULD CAUSE
A CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP AS IT APPROACHES ZETA...BUT ANY SUCH FLARE-UP
OR RESULTING INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 22.0N 47.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 23.0N 48.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 24.3N 49.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 06/1800Z 25.4N 50.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 07/0600Z 26.4N 52.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 08/0600Z 28.5N 56.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST THU JAN 05 2006

A 05/0836Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THAT CAME IN SHORTLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED INDICATED SEVERAL 30-35 KT UNCONTAMINATED
WIND VECTORS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER. SINCE THAT TIME...
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE TO THE EAST OF THE FULLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE 12Z DVORAK SATELLITE SHEAR PATTERN
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM THE TAFB WAS 35 KT... AND
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EVEN CLOSER TO THE CENTER SINCE THAT
ANALYSIS WAS MADE. IN ADDITION... SHIP ZCIH7 LOCATED ABOUT 135 NMI
NORTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED AN EAST WIND OF 30 KT... WHICH MATCHED
UP WELL WITH NEARBY QUIKSCAT WINDS. SO...REGRETFULLY...THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KT AND ZETA IS A TROPICAL STORM
ONCE AGAIN. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 05/0915Z UW-CIMSS
AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 1006 MB AND 38 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/07 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. ZETA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL STORM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS
SATELLITE WIND ANALYSES INDICATE A SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOCATED ALONG 56W LONGITUDE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT ZETA POLEWARD AND/OR SHEAR THE SYSTEM
APART... LEAVING BEHIND A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 24-36
HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...THE REMNANT LOW MAY EVEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO
A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE SHIPS MODEL'S 850-200 MB SHEAR OF 68 KT IS NOT THE ACTUAL SHEAR
AFFECTING ZETA. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE 850-300 MB WESTERLY
SHEAR TO ONLY BE AROUND 30-35 KT. AS A RESULT... ZETA MIGHT BE ABLE
TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO
BEFORE THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS VERY HOSTILE MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1500Z 22.4N 47.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 23.3N 48.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 24.3N 49.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 07/0000Z 25.3N 51.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 07/1200Z 26.3N 53.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 08/1200Z 29.0N 56.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED OR ABSORBED

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST THU JAN 05 2006

ZETA HAS MAINTAINED A NICE TIGHT INNER-CORE CIRCULATION... AND
ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE DATA T-NUMBERS FROM THE
TAFB HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN 30 KT AND 35 KT OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS... AND ODT VALUES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS T3.0/45 KT. LOW-CLOUD
DRIFT WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS ARE RUNNING AROUND 40 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT
32-KT SURFACE WINDS... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 35
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A
05/1613Z UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 1007 MB AND 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 310/07 KT. ZETA REMAINS ON TRACK
AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW LOCATED ALONG
53W LONGITUDE AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AT 30 KT. ZETA IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH AND GETS LIFTED NORTHWARD
BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTION
"SHOULD" GET SHEARED AWAY BY 24 HOURS OR SO... LEAVING BEHIND A
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY A TRAILING
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 48 HOURS...OR LESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.

JUST ABOUT THE TIME THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO WANE... NEW CONVECTION
REFIRES JUST EAST OF THE CENTER. CONVECTION HAS ALSO BECOME RATHER
ACTIVE TO THE NORTHWEST OF ZETA BETWEEN THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 50W LONGITUDE... INDICATING THAT
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE
FOR IT TO TAP INTO. THEREFORE... ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO... AFTER WHICH STRONG SHEAR BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH "SHOULD" DECAPITATE THE CYCLONE.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 23.0N 48.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 23.8N 49.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 24.7N 50.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 07/0600Z 25.7N 52.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 07/1800Z 27.0N 55.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 08/1800Z 31.0N 56.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED OR ABSORBED

$$
NNNN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST THU JAN 05 2006

HIGH-RESOLUTION DATA FROM A 2100 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED MOSTLY
30-KT SPEEDS OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...WITH A SINGLE 35-KT VECTOR
THAT MAY BE IN RAIN. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...30
KT...AND 25 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY. ZETA STILL
HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
LIMITED AND RAGGED...MAKING FOR A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE-LOOKING
SYSTEM. I WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...BUT ONE COULD ALSO MAKE A CASE FOR DOWNGRADING THE
SYSTEM TO A DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF VERY STRONG SHEAR AND...ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS AS IF ZETA
WILL NEVER DIE...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING.

A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE WEST
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD PRODUCE A NORTHWESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING CURRENT. INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER 305/6...BUT DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT TO THE RIGHT OF THE
LATEST TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFDL ACCELERATES ZETA
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN THE LATTER
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IT SHOWS A STRONGER CYCLONE THAN
WE ARE EXPECTING BY THAT TIME. IT IS MORE REASONABLE TO ASSUME
THAT ZETA WILL BE A WEAKENED SYSTEM...PROBABLY A REMNANT LOW...THAT
WILL BE STEERED BY SHALLOW-LAYER WINDS.

FORECASTER PASCH


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST FRI JAN 06 2006

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT ZETA IS BECOMING LESS
ORGANIZED. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BECOME RAGGED AND LESS
CONCENTRATED OVER THE PAST 6-12 HR...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS LESS WELL-DEFINED THAN IT WAS 24 HR AGO. FOR NOW...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON A 35 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A 38 KT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 0446 UTC.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS A LITTLE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/6. ZETA IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE A
LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ZETA SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24-36 HR AS
THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD A LITTLE...THEN THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH. ALL
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS MORE OR LESS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THOSE MODELS. THE TRACK IS
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT
POSITION AND MOTION.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT...AS FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING
OVER ZETA WITH A LARGE RIDGE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD BRING STRONG...AND POSSIBLY SUBSIDENT...
NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER ZETA STARTING IN THE NEXT 6-12 HR.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY...AND BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HR. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN 48-60 HR.
GIVEN THAT ZETA HAS BEEN QUITE TENACIOUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL CALL FOR THE REMNANTS TO LAST A LITTLE LONGER THAN THAT...WITH
DISSIPATION IN 72-96 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0900Z 23.3N 49.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 23.8N 50.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 24.6N 52.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 07/1800Z 26.0N 55.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 08/0600Z 28.5N 57.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 09/0600Z 32.5N 57.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST FRI JAN 06 2006

ZETA'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER DISHEVELED LOOKING THIS
MORNING... WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SHARP DOWN TURN IN THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES... WHICH ARE NOW ONLY 25-30 KT. REPORTS FROM
NEARBY SHIPS AT 12Z HAVE BEEN 20-25 KT... SO THERE MAY BE SOME
30-KT WINDS LOCATED TO THE EAST IN WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6. ZETA HAS MADE A SOUTHWESTERLY
JOG DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS... BUT A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY. AFTER 24-46 HOURS... ZETA IS
FORECAST TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF... OR POSSIBLY MERGE WITH... A SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK TO ADJUST FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION... BUT THE
TRACK IS NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS
INDICATE A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
PASSING OVER ZETA MAY HAVE DELIVERED THE KNOCKOUT PUNCH WE HAVE
BEEN ANXIOUSLY WAITING FOR. THE MID-LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH IS
ALSO VERY DRY WITH ONLY 18-25 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND VERY DRY AIR
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO...FINALLY...BRING THE 2005
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON TO AN END...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 23.0N 49.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 23.4N 51.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 07/1200Z 24.5N 54.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 08/0000Z 26.4N 56.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 08/1200Z 29.0N 58.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 09/1200Z 33.5N 56.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
NNNN



INITIAL 06/0300Z 23.2N 48.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 23.9N 49.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 24.6N 51.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 07/1200Z 25.4N 54.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 08/0000Z 27.0N 56.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 09/0000Z 31.5N 57.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED