Hurricane Dean

[Matthew]

First cat5 to make landfall in 2007!!! HOLY MOTHER OF GOD???



A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA...IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.



WHXX01 KWBC 120033
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0033 UTC SUN AUG 12 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20070812 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070812 0000 070812 1200 070813 0000 070813 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.8N 20.8W 13.0N 23.8W 14.1N 27.6W 15.2N 32.3W
BAMD 11.8N 20.8W 12.2N 25.0W 12.5N 29.2W 12.8N 33.2W
BAMM 11.8N 20.8W 12.6N 24.5W 13.3N 28.5W 13.9N 32.8W
LBAR 11.8N 20.8W 12.1N 24.2W 12.7N 28.0W 13.1N 32.1W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070814 0000 070815 0000 070816 0000 070817 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 37.2W 17.5N 46.9W 17.6N 56.2W 16.3N 64.6W
BAMD 13.0N 37.2W 13.3N 44.9W 13.6N 52.3W 13.9N 58.3W
BAMM 14.3N 37.2W 14.5N 46.0W 13.9N 54.2W 13.1N 60.0W
LBAR 13.7N 36.5W 13.8N 44.5W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 37KTS 45KTS 51KTS 54KTS
DSHP 37KTS 45KTS 51KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 20.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 18.1W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 15.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN


Nice LLC developing on quickscat and with a buoy just west. I say depression.


A LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY
WINDS HAVE KEPT THE SYSTEM FROM BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD
RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE LOW MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

This is a depression no question about it. The nhc is always slow or messing around.

WHXX04 KWBC 122327
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 12

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.1 25.8 275./15.9
6 13.3 26.9 317./15.6
12 12.5 30.2 257./33.4
18 12.4 31.7 266./14.5
24 12.2 32.8 262./11.1
30 12.2 34.4 270./15.7
36 12.2 36.3 269./18.7
42 12.3 37.7 273./13.5
48 12.3 39.6 271./18.2
54 12.2 41.5 269./18.7
60 12.2 43.3 270./17.5
66 12.3 45.0 272./16.1
72 12.9 46.5 289./16.6
78 13.3 48.7 281./21.3
84 13.4 50.5 273./17.0
90 13.8 52.1 285./16.8
96 14.1 53.9 280./17.4
102 14.4 55.5 279./15.7
108 14.5 57.1 276./15.7
114 14.8 58.5 281./14.0
120 15.1 60.2 281./16.2
126 15.4 61.6 281./13.6

[Matthew]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

<snip>

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 28W/29W S
OF 18N...IS LOCATED SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 12N MOVING
W 15 KT. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 30W-34W.


I think this could even be a tropical storm.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 131454
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

...FOURTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.6 WEST OR ABOUT 520
MILES...840 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 2000 MILES...3220 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...12.0 N...31.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB




000
WTNT44 KNHC 131458
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS REVEALS THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE FAR EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS...BUT IT IS
MOSTLY CONFINED WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO MODERATE
EASTERLY WIND SHEAR. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0723Z THIS MORNING
ONLY CAPTURED THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS
INDICATES SOME BELIEVABLE 30-KT WINDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
BASED ON THE CURVED BAND PATTERN AT 12Z WERE 25-30 KT...ALTHOUGH THE
DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HAVE DECREASED SINCE 12Z. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST THIS
MORNING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/18...BUT MORE
RECENT VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THE CENTER MIGHT BE
EVEN A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ADVISORY POSITION. WITH THE
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND
BUILD WESTWARD...A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION MIGHT
PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE TRACK SHOULD BE GENERALLY
WESTWARD AND FAIRLY BRISK. A VERY GRADUAL BEND TO THE RIGHT AND A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN ON DAY THREE AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL...UKMET...AND GFS.

THE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT INTENSIFICATION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS...EVEN
THOSE THAT DO NOT HAVE A STRONG REPRESENTATION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE ITSELF...FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER AND
NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES. COMBINED WITH WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACK...CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
STEADY STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE FORECASTS NEARLY HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS...AND THE
GFDL FORECAST INTENSITY EXCEEDS 100 KT AT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST THREE
DAYS...THEN INDICATES A STRENGTHENING HURRICANE...BUT IS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES EXIST IN
BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY AT LONG RANGES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 12.0N 31.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 12.0N 34.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 11.9N 38.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 11.9N 41.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 11.9N 44.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 13.0N 51.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 14.5N 57.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 18/1200Z 16.0N 63.5W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Matthew]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 132054
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

THE DEPRESSION IS MAINTAINING ITSELF IN THE FACE OF EASTERLY WIND
SHEAR OF ABOUT 15 KT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSATING TODAY AND
HAS REMAINED DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
METEOSAT-9 HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY CLEARLY REVEALED THE
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE RECENTLY
THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND PARTIALLY OBSCURED THE CENTER.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
REMAINS 30 KT.

TD FOUR IS STILL RACING ALMOST DUE WESTWARD...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 265/17. A CONTINUED BRISK AND GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE
MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AHEAD OF NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE DURING
THAT PERIOD...AS THE MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE FAST INITIAL SPEED. BEYOND 48 HOURS...A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS. SINCE THIS
MORNING...ALL OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN AND
SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO FORECASTING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD THE
CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST MODELS...BUT REMAINS A LITTLE FASTER AND TO
THE WEST OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...SINCE THE GUIDANCE COULD SHIFT
BACK THE OTHER WAY LATER.

THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ABATE WHILE THE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE OFFICIAL TRACK DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO FIND ITSELF BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING. A NOTABLE EXCEPTION IS
THE ECMWF...WHICH FORECASTS A STRONGER MID-OCEANIC TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN 4-5 DAYS WHICH COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN THE
SHEAR. THAT MODEL...HOWEVER...DOES NOT REPRESENT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WELL...AND IT MIGHT NOT HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON HOW THE CYCLONE
COULD MODIFY THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS 63
KT AT 72 HOURS AND 75 KT BY FIVE DAYS...WHILE THE LGEM REACHES 84
KT AT 120 HOURS. MEANWHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST 90 AND 84
KT...RESPECTIVELY...AT FIVE DAYS. CONSIDERING THIS GUIDANCE...THE
NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IN UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING BUT
RETAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY AT THE
LONGER RANGES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 11.9N 33.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 11.8N 35.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 11.8N 38.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 11.8N 41.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 12.1N 44.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 13.0N 50.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 15.0N 56.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 17.0N 61.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB



TD#4 remains a tropical depression at 11 p.m. with litte change in organization in the short term.




Depression moving westward with little change in organization...
At 1100 PM AST...0300z...the center of Tropical Depression Four was
located near latitude 12.0 north...longitude 35.0 west or about 740
miles...1190 km...west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde
Islands and about 1780 miles...2865 km...east of the Lesser
Antilles.

The depression is moving toward the west near 20 mph and this motion
is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and the depression could become a tropical storm on Tuesday.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

Repeating the 1100 PM AST position...12.0 N...35.0 W. Movement
toward...west near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 am AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


At 11 am edt on this Tuesday August 14th, 2007, TD#4 had strengthened to tropical storm Dean. A track towards the west into a more favorable upper air environment and warmer sea surface temperature are expected to promote further strengthening of this system during the next several days as it approaches the northern Lesser Antillies.

...Dean forms in the deep tropics...midway between Africa and the
Lesser Antilles...
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
Dean.
At 1100 am AST...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Dean was
located near latitude 11.7 north...longitude 39.4 west or about 1030
miles...1660 km...west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands and
about 1490 miles...2400 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.

Dean is moving toward the west near 23 mph...37 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km
mainly to the north of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches.

Repeating the 1100 am AST position...11.7 N...39.4 W. Movement
toward...west near 23 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Matthew]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 150832
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DEAN HAS MORE OF A BANDED
APPEARANCE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE BANDING IS NOT YET
WELL-DEFINED. WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED...IT MAY BE
THAT A COMBINATION OF DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE
STORM AND INFLOW FROM OVER THE COOLER WATERS TO THE NORTH ARE
SLOWING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE EARLIER
QUIKSCAT DATA AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY UNCERTAIN 275/16...UNCERTAIN DUE TO
AMSU MICROWAVE DATA HINTING THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE ADVISORY POSITION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEAN IS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE... WITH A LARGE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
64W-77W. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH SHOULD
GRADUALLY FILL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH RIDGING PERSISTING
NORTH OF DEAN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FROM
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE BAHAMAS TO A MORE WESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. THE UKMET CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION...WHILE THE GFS CALLS FOR A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72
HR...THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER
BASED ON THE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE. THE NEW
TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE
GFS.

DEAN SHOULD ENCOUNTER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR
STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND SO DOES THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS AND WARM WATER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DEAN COULD BE
NOTABLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 12.2N 44.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 12.4N 46.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 12.8N 50.1W 55 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 13.2N 53.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 13.8N 57.1W 70 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 15.0N 63.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 16.0N 68.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 17.5N 74.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



000
WTNT44 KNHC 151435
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEAN HAS A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST CLOUD PATTERN. HINTS OF A BANDING EYE HAVE BEEN SEEN ON
VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE BEEN INCREASING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT IS A
BLEND OF TAFB/SAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND AMSU/AODT
ESTIMATES OF NEAR 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...275/17. A STRONG
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE LIES TO THE NORTH OF DEAN AND IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN WELL-ESTABLISHED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NUMERICAL TRACK
FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL
MAINTAIN THE SAME GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BEYOND THREE DAYS...THE FATE OF THE STORM WILL BE PARTIALLY
CONTROLLED BY A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS.
THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF INTO A LOW AND HEAD WESTWARD
UNDER A BUILDING SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES HIGH. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE LOW REMAINING FARTHER AWAY FROM DEAN WITH STRONGER
RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THAN IN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK IN THE LONG-RANGE..AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN
THAT DIRECTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST.

STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE THE BEST BET AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT BY ALL MODELS AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE STORM START TO RISE. THE ONLY
NEGATING FACTOR TO INTENSIFICATION MIGHT BE THE ATMOSPHERIC
STABILITY AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...INTENSITY
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEAN WILL BE A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE GFDL/HWRF/SHIPS MODELS ALL
FORECAST DEAN TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY DAY 5...AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 12.4N 46.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 12.7N 48.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 13.1N 52.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 13.7N 55.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 14.2N 59.2W 75 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 66.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 72.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 18.0N 78.0W 105 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

WTNT34 KNHC 151457 RRA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 9...RETRANSMITTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM AST WED AUG 15 2007

...DEAN STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1045
MILES...1685 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
DEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW.

DEAN IS A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N...46.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Matthew]

[Matthew]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 160241
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM AST WED AUG 15 2007

...DEAN STRENGTHENS...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES...

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS...ST. LUCIA...
MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST.
EUSTATIUS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TOMORROW
MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST OR ABOUT 625
MILES...1005 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE DEAN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...13.1 N...50.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Matthew]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 160252
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

DEAN HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
EVENING...WITH A 2311 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGESTING THAT A SMALL BANDING
EYE FEATURE MAY BE FORMING. THE 00Z DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE 55 KT...HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS
IMPROVED SINCE THEN AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/20. DEAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
MOVING WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED ON THIS MOTION DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AT DAYS 4 AND
5...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS A BIT MORE SPREAD...BUT STILL IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE
INTERACTION BETWEEN DEAN AND A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE BAHAMAS...AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE THE TROUGH WESTWARD AHEAD OF
DEAN. THE NOGAPS IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE THE TROUGH WEST AND ITS
TRACK IS THEREFORE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.

THERE ARE SEEMINGLY FEW FACTORS THAT WOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...THE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE OVER DEAN AS IT MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
MYSTERIOUSLY...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THEIR
RESPECTIVE INTENSITY FORECASTS. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STEADY STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE
INVESTIGATING DEAN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV
WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION FOR THE 17/00Z
ANALYSIS CYCLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 13.1N 50.2W 60 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 13.6N 53.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 14.2N 57.2W 70 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 14.8N 61.1W 75 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 15.3N 64.7W 85 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 16.3N 71.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 17.8N 78.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W 115 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



Report to moderator 71.222.119.35 (?)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
God Bless Global Warming.

"Russia should immediately and unconditionally cease its military operations and withdraw all forces from sovereign Georgian territory."
-- Senator John McCain


Matthew
Tropical Weather Watchers Founder
Administrator
Cat 5 Hurricane


Weather Karma: 2
Online

Posts: 4896



Re: DEAN
« Reply #31 on: August 16, 2007, 07:53:47 AM » Quote Modify Remove Split Topic

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEAN (AL042007) 20070816 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070816 0600 070816 1800 070817 0600 070817 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.2N 51.3W 14.6N 56.6W 15.6N 62.0W 16.3N 66.9W
BAMD 13.2N 51.3W 14.1N 55.2W 14.9N 58.7W 15.6N 62.1W
BAMM 13.2N 51.3W 14.3N 56.0W 15.0N 60.5W 15.4N 64.6W
LBAR 13.2N 51.3W 13.8N 55.2W 14.5N 59.6W 15.0N 63.8W
SHIP 65KTS 74KTS 82KTS 93KTS
DSHP 65KTS 74KTS 82KTS 93KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070818 0600 070819 0600 070820 0600 070821 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.3N 71.1W 15.9N 78.2W 15.8N 83.6W 17.6N 87.4W
BAMD 16.3N 65.5W 17.5N 72.8W 19.0N 80.9W 21.4N 88.8W
BAMM 15.7N 68.5W 16.2N 75.7W 16.9N 82.9W 18.1N 88.6W
LBAR 15.4N 67.8W 16.7N 74.6W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 100KTS 101KTS 111KTS 113KTS
DSHP 100KTS 101KTS 111KTS 113KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 51.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 21KT
LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 47.0W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 43.4W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 45NM

$$
NNNN

Report to moderator 71.222.121.99 (?)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
God Bless Global Warming.

"Russia should immediately and unconditionally cease its military operations and withdraw all forces from sovereign Georgian territory."
-- Senator John McCain


Matthew
Tropical Weather Watchers Founder
Administrator
Cat 5 Hurricane


Weather Karma: 2
Online

Posts: 4896



Re: DEAN
« Reply #32 on: August 16, 2007, 10:01:22 AM » Quote Modify Remove Split Topic

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT34 KNHC 160849
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM AST THU AUG 16 2007

...DEAN BECOMES A HURRICANE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS
LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLAND...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.3 WEST OR ABOUT 485 MILES...
780 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 590 MILES...950 KM...EAST OF
MARTINIQUE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION
SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF DEAN NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE DEAN THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...13.4 N...52.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN






Report to moderator 71.222.121.99 (?)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
God Bless Global Warming.

"Russia should immediately and unconditionally cease its military operations and withdraw all forces from sovereign Georgian territory."
-- Senator John McCain


Matthew
Tropical Weather Watchers Founder
Administrator
Cat 5 Hurricane


Weather Karma: 2
Online

Posts: 4896



Re: DEAN
« Reply #33 on: August 16, 2007, 10:24:55 AM » Quote Modify Remove Split Topic

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT44 KNHC 160908
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

DEAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL
GLIMPSES OF AN EYE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CLOUD TOPS
COLDER THAN -70C NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO DEAN IS UPGRADED TO THE FIRST
HURRICANE OF THE 2007 HURRICANE SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21. DEAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS BUILDING RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ASIDE A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF
FLORIDA...AND SHOULD THIS HAPPEN THAT SYSTEM WOULD HAVE LITTLE
INTERACTION WITH DEAN. THE PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP DEAN
MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A TRACK
THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN FIVE
DAYS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE....AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS
CONSENSUS MODELS.

THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE TO KEEP DEAN FROM STRENGTHENING THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH
115 KT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE THE EXPERIMENTAL LGE MODEL
IS CALLING FOR 127 KT. THE GFDL CALLS FOR DEAN TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH ODDLY ENOUGH IT
CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE FIRST 60 HR OF THE
FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD FOR THE
FIRST 96 HR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE
INVESTIGATING DEAN THIS AFTERNOON..AND THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV
WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION FOR THE 17/00Z
ANALYSIS CYCLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 13.4N 52.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 13.9N 55.4W 70 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 14.4N 59.4W 80 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 14.9N 63.0W 90 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 15.4N 66.5W 100 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 16.5N 73.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 18.0N 80.5W 110 KT
120HR VT 21/0600Z 20.0N 87.5W 115 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



This thing is exploding big time. Clear and defined eye is developing. I would say at least 85-90 knots.

WTNT44 KNHC 161450
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

DEAN IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY. THE HURRICANE HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL
CLOUD-FILLED EYE THIS MORNING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 77 KT...WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE
HIGHER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL BE IN THE EYE OF DEAN LATER TODAY TO
OBTAIN A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. WIND AND MAXIMUM SEAS
DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41010 WERE CRITICAL FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE SHOULD
CONTROL DEAN'S MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE SHOULD
FORCE THE HURRICANE ON A SPEEDY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
THROUGH ABOUT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
DEAN WILL REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
ATTEMPT TO MOVE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AS WELL...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL. IT IS
STALLING A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS...IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS THE HURRICANE TO MOVE
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AT 120 HR IN
DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL FORECAST.

ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AROUND
DEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEEP WARM
WATER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...DEAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES
A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH DEVELOP THIS
SYSTEM INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BY THE TIME
IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION
FOR THE 17/00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 13.7N 54.3W 80 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 14.1N 57.4W 90 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 14.6N 61.4W 95 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 15.1N 64.9W 100 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 15.6N 68.4W 105 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 18.5N 82.5W 120 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 21.0N 89.0W 80 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


000
WTNT34 KNHC 161759
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007

... AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REACHES HURRICANE DEAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE INDICATES THAT A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST.
VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER
TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES...
440 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 365 MILES...590 KM...EAST OF
MARTINIQUE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF
DEAN WILL BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A NEW STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER
INSTRUMENT ON BOARD OF THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST
MEASURED 90 MPH...150 KM/HR SURFACE WINDS WHILE MAKING ITS FIRST
ENTRANCE TO THE HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER. DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41040 INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE
CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...13.8 N...55.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE




Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 16, 2007

...Hurricane Dean rapidly approaching the Lesser Antilles with 100
mph winds...
At 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...the government of France has issued a
Hurricane Warning for Martinique...Guadeloupe and its dependencies
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the islands of Dominica
and St. Lucia. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions
are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the following islands
of the Lesser Antilles... Grenada and its dependencies...St.
Vincent and The Grenadines...Barbados...Saba...St. Eustatius...
monserrat...Antigua...Nevis...St Kitts...Barbuda and St. Maarten.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...a tropical storm watch has been issued
for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. A tropical storm watch
means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles...Hispaniola...Jamaica
and eastern Cuba should monitor the progress of Dean.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 14.0 north...longitude 56.5 west or about 210 miles...
335 km...east-northeast of Barbados and about 305 miles...490 km...
east of Martinique.

Dean is moving toward the west near 23 mph...37 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue tonight and tomorrow. On this
track...the center of Dean will be crossing the Lesser Antilles
early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph...160
km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is a category two hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Stronger winds...especially in
gusts...are likely over elevated terrain. Some strengthening is
forecast before the hurricane reaches the Lesser Antilles.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles...30 km...from
the center. Data from NOAA buoy 41040...the French buoy 41101 and a
new stepped-frequency microwave radiometer instrument on the Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that tropical storm force
winds extend outward up to 150 miles...240 km...from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance plane was 979 mb...28.91 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...
accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible
near the center of Dean.

Storm total rainfalls of 2 to 5 inches...with isolated maximum
amounts of 7 inches in mountainous areas...are possible in
association with Dean. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

Repeating the 500 PM AST position...14.0 N...56.5 W. Movement
toward...west near 23 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph.
Minimum central pressure...979 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila/Blake



it looks like a strong upper low is forming in the west carib and atlantic


000
WTNT44 KNHC 170250
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF DEAN HAS DETERIORATED A BIT OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS...WITH NO EVIDENCE OF AN EYE IN CONVENTIONAL OR
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON THE EARLIER AIR FORCE
FLIGHT RECORDED A PEAK SURFACE WIND OF 88 KT AROUND 19Z IN THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE EYEWALL...ALONG WITH VERY LITTLE WIND IN
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE EARLIER
AIRCRAFT DATA AND RECENT STRUCTURAL TRENDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 85 KT. COMMUNICATIONS DIFFICULTIES DURING THE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION PREVENTED MUCH OF THE DATA FROM GETTING TO
US...BUT DROPSONDE DATA CALLED IN AFTERWARD BY THE CREW INDICATE
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...
ABOUT 976 MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/22. DEAN IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE GUIDANCE IS VERY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK OF DEAN WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH INTERACTION THERE IS BETWEEN THE HURRICANE AND A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. ALL THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY MOVES THIS LOW WESTWARD OUT OF THE WAY
AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO...AND HENCE ONLY
A MODEST RIGHTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS AT LONG
RANGES HOWEVER...A DIFFERENT EVOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LOW IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DEAN CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A STRONG OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND THIS
FAVORABLE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT TWO TO
THREE DAYS. DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV MISSION THIS EVENING SHOW NO
EVIDENCE OF UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS IN THE NEAR ENVIRONMENT...
AND THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER FLOW COULD BE A LITTLE
LESS FAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY IF THE UPPER
LOW LAGS A BIT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY FASTER
DEVELOPMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT ENDS UP IN THE SAME
PLACE...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 14.1N 58.7W 85 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 14.5N 61.9W 90 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 15.1N 65.8W 95 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 15.7N 69.2W 105 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 72.6W 115 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 18.0N 80.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 19.5N 86.0W 120 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 22.0N 92.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

000
WTNT34 KNHC 170546
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...CENTER OF DEAN TO PASS NEAR MARTINIQUE AND ST. LUCIA DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA...MARTINIQUE...
DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA
AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...
BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...FRENCH RADAR DATA FROM MARTINIQUE HELPED
LOCATE THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 90 MILES...140 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
BARBADOS.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR THE
ISLANDS OF ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...14.3 N...59.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




WTNT44 KNHC 170853
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF DEAN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN EITHER
SATELLITE IMAGERY OR IMAGERY FROM THE FRENCH RADAR ON MARTINIQUE.
THERE ARE ONLY OCCASIONAL GLIMPSES OF A RAGGED EYE ON RADAR...AND
THE EYEWALL HAS BEEN AT BEST ABOUT 50 PERCENT COVERAGE. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...WHICH ARE
UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 85 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THIS IS A LITTLE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/21. DEAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 HR WITH
DEAN REMAINING ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE SEEMINGLY RESPONDED TO THE G-IV JET
MISSION BY SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF DEAN...WITH A
MOTION THAT IS SLOWER AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. GIVEN THE INITIAL MOTION...THE FIRST 12 HR OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE RIGHT FROM 12-72 HR. AFTER 72
HR...THE FORECAST IS BECOMING MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE EVENTUAL INTERACTION OF DEAN AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS
NOW CALL FOR DEAN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF...WHILE THE CANADIAN...NOGAPS...AND EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUE
TO FORECAST A WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE GFS AND THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS ARE
BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR IS ALSO
NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEAN HAS APPARENTLY BEEN SLOWED BY A COMBINATION
OF DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND LIGHT WESTERLY
SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HR...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME.
AFTER 24 HR...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING...WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLING FOR
DEAN TO REACH AT LEAST CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS THE SAME AS IN THE EARLIER ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HR...THEN
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THEREAFTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
WEAKENING FROM 96 TO 120 HR IS BASED ON DEAN CROSSING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND IF IT INSTEAD MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IT
COULD REMAIN STRONGER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 14.3N 60.9W 85 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 14.7N 63.6W 90 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 15.3N 67.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 16.1N 70.5W 105 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 16.9N 74.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 81.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 20.5N 87.0W 125 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 23.0N 92.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

985
WTNT34 KNHC 171751
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
145 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...DEAN STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 125 MPH WINDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...
AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST.
MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO
BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 145 PM AST...1745Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...
280 KM...WEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 300 MILES...480 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ON THIS TRACK...DEAN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATE THAT DEAN HAS STRENGTHENED. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE NOW 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A MAJOR
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM. BANDS OF HEAVY SQUALLS ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ARE APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

LATEST ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO
5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 145 PM AST POSITION...14.8 N...63.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI

HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
2100 UTC FRI AUG 17 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO
BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE
PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND
DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
LUCIA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 64.5W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE 60SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 64.5W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 63.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 60SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.4N 70.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 75SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.3N 74.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 75SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 80SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 80SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 24.5N 96.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 64.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI






HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN RACING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO
BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE
PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND
DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
LUCIA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST OR ABOUT 840 MILES...
1355 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 260 MILES...
415 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO REACH DEAN TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...15.0 N...64.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI






HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EARLIER TODAY
INDICATED THAT DEAN REACHED 110 KNOTS. NEXT PLANE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH DEAN AROUND 00 UTC TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW
AN EYE FEATURE...NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS
WHICH ARE STILL AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE INCREASES WESTWARD. THIS
WOULD CALL FOR AN OVERALL UPWARD INTENSITY TREND. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS....GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS. THE
STEERING PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THIS
PATTERN WOULD MAINTAIN DEAN OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE GFDL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS
OUTSIDE THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT CAN NOT BE RULE
OUT COMPLETELY SINCE THIS MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT FORECAST TRACK
HISTORY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 15.0N 64.5W 110 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.4W 115 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 16.4N 70.8W 120 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 17.3N 74.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 77.0W 130 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 84.0W 130 KT
96HR VT 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.0W 100 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 22/1800Z 24.5N 96.0W 105 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



I hope this becomes a cat5

000
URNT12 KNHC 172356
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 17/23:32:00Z
B. 14 deg 52 min N
065 deg 02 min W
C. NA mb 2632 m
D. 119 kt
E. 302 deg 006 nm
F. 048 deg 130 kt
G. 309 deg 010 nm
H. 946 mb
I. 8 C/ 3045 m
J. 18 C/ 3045 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. 16
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0504A DEAN OB 03
MAX FL WIND 130 KT NW QUAD 23:29:00


000
WTNT34 KNHC 180004
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...CORRECTED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED TO 135 MPH...

...DEAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AS ITS CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST OR ABOUT 800 MILES...
1290 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 255 MILES...
410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 19 MPH...31 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 135
MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 946
MB...27.93 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...14.9 N...65.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 19 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB